Wednesday, 20 July 2011

NCAA Futures *Update*

We have recently posted our plays and thoughts on the upcoming NCAA College Football Season.

One of those is Texas A&M at value for the BCS National Title.

Please note that we posted odds of $51 which we thought were the best available at the time. However if you shop around you can get as good as $67 now which we have taken also.

The season is fast approaching and many sleepless nights for AussieSportsGuys finding the good numbers.

@AusSportsGuys

Scottish Premier League Week 1 *Update* (@Wiggum7534)

Earlier in the week we posted our thoughts on the opening round of the Scottish Premier League as outlined below.

Some interesting moves since @wiggum7534 posted our early thoughts with Rangers/Hearts draw firming, Dundee Utd drifted, Motherwell drifted, St Mirren and draw in that game have also drifted and Celtic firming.

Follow @Wiggum7354 and @AusSportsGuys for all the latest news. Our SPL views will be posted weekly and hopefully steering you into a few winners!


SPL Preview Week 1 (@wiggum7534)
SPL Preview Bets – Week 1

This coming weekend the Scottish Premier League kicks off for season 2011-12. Rangers were champions last season (their third consecutive title) in another thrilling finish to the season.
Over the course of the season we will look at some betting opportunities. Some teams will definitely decline from last season, such as Inverness CT. Others will be looking to improve, such as Dundee Utd (provided they hang onto Goodwillie – or he doesn’t end up in jail).
For week 1, I think there will be 3 decent bets. All odds quoted are from @sportingbetoz and current as of today.

Rangers v Hearts (Draw @ $4.75)
Hearts are without doubt the third best team in the competition. They were excellent last season, until a couple of ordinary results meant they could no longer reach second, while being (pretty much) locked for third position. Their results then declined with no real motivation to see the season out.
Rangers are with new manager and Gers legend Ally McCoist. Very much an unknown quantity as a manager, but one would expect he is no Walter Smith. In addition to that, Rangers have some injury concerns and have struggled pre-season (yes I know, it is only pre-season).
On the basis of Hearts improvement, Rangers poor pre-season and potential jitters with McCoist, I’m taking the value of a draw at $4.75.

Hibs v Celtic (Celtic @ $1.40)
This is a no-brainer. Celtic have had a solid pre-season and are in ‘revenge’ mode after giving away last season’s title with a loss at Inverness. Hibs are in a downward spiral (see http://t.co/BQPbE3s) with a manager who doesn’t seem interested to be there. Add to that the departure of Derek Riordan (talented, but work rate? Hmmm).
Celtic will win despite the away trek.

Dundee United v Kilmarnock ($1.70)
Dundee United are in the midst of a Champions League campaign. That kind of competitive football will see them well suited to an opening win v Killie. David Goodwillie obviously the key to United’s chances.
Killie finished last season off in awful fashion following the resignation of manager Mixu Paatelainen (signed as coach of Finland). I cannot see Killie winning this and see them as a genuine relegation side.

Other Games
In the other games, on which I may not bet, am leaning to Motherwell ($2) as Inverness have lost too many good players in the off-season, and either St Mirren ($2.88) or a draw ($3.25).

With a week to go before the season officially starts, obviously there is the potential of some further transfers (in and out) that could mess with the above selections. Updates will be provided should any significant transfers occur.

Tuesday, 19 July 2011

NCAA Games of the year

Our friends at Sportingbet have listed some college football games of the year for those desperate few that can't wait to lay down some action.

It is tough taking a number so far out with fall practise still a couple of weeks away.

However we are keen on one game at first glance Notre Dame @ Michigan. The fighting Irish always seem to be the popular pick for improving team with a chance for BCS glory.

Notre Dame are currently -3 ($1.95) which we think is good value at this early stage.

More on the way over the coming weeks as we lead into the season!

@AusSportsGuys

Monday, 18 July 2011

The Pies..The AFL and a few AussieSportsGuys

Heath Shaw is obviously stupid. Seriously stupid. How many chances does he need before he actually smartens up? No excuse for him.

In relation to the Maxwell side of things though, the issue where a footballer passed on information to others who then had a bet, I don't really see what the issue is. This sort of stuff goes on all the time in the racing industry.

Acceptances for Saturday races are taken Wednesday mornings for most states. Therefore, once a trainer knows the field (similar to a coach), he may change tactics on how the horse is ridden. Let's say you have a horse that normally settles midfield or worse. If there is no speed in the race, the trainer may decide to get the horse to lead. The whole stable will know about this. Nothing stops those in the stable, or their relations, from then having a little bet at the better odds knowing this inside information.

Just because the horse is going to lead, doesn't mean the horse is going to win. Same as, just because Maxwell is playing up front, doesn't mean he's going to kick the first goal.

The whole thing is a disgrace, with the AFL going overboard as usual.

Sack the AFL (and the Herald Sun)

@wiggum7534


What a coincidence that the ban matches up perfectly with the end of the home and away season. I assume the AFL got the ok from Collingwood before they handed that ban down.

If they are serious about stamping this out then hit him where it hurts and make him miss some finals football, the six week suspended ban is soft and irrelevant.

As for Eddie Maguire what happened to Heath Shaw's last chance? One more indiscretion? Oh but he is playing well isn't he so you had hoped everyone would forget that comment you made after
he lied to you last time.

Keep this up an you may just run out of credibility Ed.

@Mal68au


I was only starting to get my teeth into the messy situation the AFL found itself in with the 3rd party deals. Feverishly I was reading as much information as I could trying to understand when these rules had been 'tightened'.

News had broken that a potential 3rd party would chip in and try and retain the services of Tom Scully for the Melbourne Football Club.

Shortly thereafter Football Operations Manager Adrian Anderson called a press conference and announced that 3rd party deal rules had been tightened and any potential deal regarding Tom Scully would be denied. The new rule however would not have any implications for the Chris Judd Visy Deal.

hmmmm.....

Certain people in the media were heard on radio voicing concerns that the situation left them feeling dirty. I was them working away on twitter hoping that the media would come out all guns blazing and ask the serious questions of the AFL.

Around lunchtime the following day rumour was circulating that a player was in strife with gambling implications. Shortly after it was confirmed that Heath Shaw was caught placing a bet on a Football game involving his own team and would be suspended for the remainder of the home and away season.

I have come away with many questions that will no doubt left go unanswered. How Tyson Goldsack joking with his mum that he would be playing forward and kicking the first goal in the Grand Final replay is different to Nick Maxwell telling his family over dinner he would be playing forward?

My main question is was it purely a coincidence that the AFL was opening itself to some criticism with the 3rd party deals and the next day this news breaks about Heath Shaw??

The rules are very clear and as a sports fan the sanctity of sport is sacred. Heath Shaw should think himself lucky he is still employed by the Collingwood Football Club, let alone a chance to still play finals this year.

Maybe I give the AFL too much credit...Are they that smart...Are they the puppet master with the media hanging from the end of the strings with us the public the powerless audience???

I hear the AFL is in a wonderful place...yet every weekend all I hear is complaining about terrible umpiring, terrible rules, terrible unbalance in the competition, terrible that teams are selling home games for a much need dollar.

Maybe I am alone...But I don't like what I see when I take the rose coloured glasses off.

@JohnAnthonyOZ

Follow the team @AusSportsGuys

Saturday, 16 July 2011

SPL Preview Week 1 (@wiggum7534)

SPL Preview Bets – Week 1
 
This coming weekend the Scottish Premier League kicks off for season 2011-12. Rangers were champions last season  (their third consecutive title) in another thrilling finish to the season.
Over the course of the season we will look at some betting opportunities. Some teams will definitely decline from last season, such as Inverness CT. Others will be looking to improve, such as Dundee Utd (provided they hang onto Goodwillie – or he doesn’t end up in jail).
For week 1, I think there will be 3 decent bets. All odds quoted are from @sportingbetoz and current as of today.
 
Rangers v Hearts (Draw @ $4.75)
Hearts are without doubt the third best team in the competition. They were excellent last season, until a couple of ordinary results meant they could no longer reach second, while being (pretty much) locked for third position. Their results then declined with no real motivation to see the season out.
Rangers are with new manager and Gers legend Ally McCoist. Very much an unknown quantity as a manager, but one would expect he is no Walter Smith. In addition to that, Rangers have some injury concerns and have struggled pre-season (yes I know, it is only pre-season).
On the basis of Hearts improvement, Rangers poor pre-season and potential jitters with McCoist, I’m taking the value of a draw at $4.75.
 
Hibs v Celtic (Celtic @ $1.40)
This is a no-brainer. Celtic have had a solid pre-season and are in ‘revenge’ mode after giving away last season’s title with a loss at Inverness. Hibs are in a downward spiral (see http://t.co/BQPbE3s) with a manager who doesn’t seem interested to be there. Add to that the departure of Derek Riordan (talented, but work rate? Hmmm).
Celtic will win despite the away trek.
 
Dundee United v Kilmarnock ($1.70)
Dundee United are in the midst of a Champions League campaign. That kind of competitive football will see them well suited to an opening win v Killie. David Goodwillie obviously the key to United’s chances.
Killie finished last season off in awful fashion following the resignation of manager Mixu Paatelainen (signed as coach of Finland).  I cannot see Killie winning this and see them as a genuine relegation side.
 
Other Games
In the other games, on which I may not bet, am leaning to Motherwell  ($2) as Inverness have lost too many good players in the off-season,  and either St Mirren ($2.88) or a draw ($3.25).
 
With a week to go before the season officially starts, obviously there is the potential of some further transfers (in and out) that could mess with the above selections. Updates will be provided should any significant transfers occur.

Thursday, 14 July 2011

NCAA Football Futures

AussieSportsGuys have finalised most of our future bets with the NCAA Football season edging closer.

BSC National Title -

South Carolina $51.00
Texas A & M - $51.00
Wisconsin - $41.00
Arizona State - $101.00

We have also taken the following Conference winners -

South Carolina (SEC) $9.00
Arizona State (Pac12) $6.00
SMU (Conf USA) $8.00
Wisconsin (Big 10) $2.90

6 weeks until the season and we kick into top gear.

@AusSportsGuys

Saturday, 9 July 2011

Dwayne and AFL 2004 National Draft from @Mal68Au

Watching Fox Sports a month or so ago Dwayne Russell (#moron) said something about how Ryan Griffen was one of the biggest recruitment “what ifs” in the history of the draft. When questioned he referred to the fact that the Bulldogs took him before Buddy Franklin and they have clearly made a massive mistake.

Whilst I obviously don’t think much of the above mentioned moron, he did get me thinking, with 6 and a half years of hindsight, how would the 2004 national draft look now. So firstly I did a bit of a revisit as to what the draft actually looked like.


1 Brett Deledio / Richmond
2 Jarryd Roughead / Hawthorn
3 Ryan Griffen / Western Bulldogs
4 Richard Tambling / Richmond
5 Lance Franklin / Hawthorn
6 Tom Williams / Western Bulldogs
7 Jordan Lewis / Hawthorn
8 John Meesen / Adelaide
9 Jordan Russell / Carlton
10 Christopher Egan / Collingwood
11 Adam Thomson / Port Adelaide
12 Danny Meyer / Richmond
13 Matthew Bate / Melbourne
14 Angus Mofries / Essendon
15 Lynden Dunn / Melbourne
16 Adam Pattison / Richmond
17 Andrew McQualter / St Kilda
18 Cameron Wood / Brisbane
19 Ryan Willits / Port Adelaide
20 Dean Polo / Richmond
21 Thomas Murphy / Hawthorn
22 Jesse Wells / Western Bulldogs
23 Sean Rusling / Collingwood
24 Nathan Van Berlo / Adelaide
25 Adam Hartlett / Carlton
26 Matthew Little / Hawthorn
27 Patrick Garner / Brisbane
28 Chad Gibson / Adelaide
29 Matthew Rosa / West Coast
30 Andrew Lee / Essendon
31 Jarred Moore / Sydney
32 Brent Prismall / Geelong
33 Cain Ackland / St Kilda
34 James Ezard / Port Adelaide
35 Fabian Deluca / Port Adelaide
36 Luke McGuane / Richmond
37 Mark LeCras / West Coast
38 Damian McCormack / Western Bulldogs
39 Travis Cloke / Collingwood
40 Ivan Maric / Adelaide
41 Luke Blckwell / Carlton
42 Jesse Smith / North Melbourne
43 Michael Newton / Melbourne
44 Mitch Morton / West Coast
45 Justin Sherman / Brisbane
46 Henry Slattery / Essendon
47 David Spriggs / Sydney
48 Nathan Ablett / Geelong
49 Mark McGough / St Kilda
50 Jayden Attard / Brisbane
51 Ben Eckermann / Port Adelaide
52 Dean Limbach / Richmond
53 Simon Taylor / Hawthorn
54 Stephen Tiller / Western Bulldogs
55 Adam Iacobucci / Collingwood
56 Chris Knights / Adelaide
57 Bradley Smith / West Coast
58 Brad Moran / North Melbourne
59 Benet Copping / Fremantle
60 Paul Thomas / Essendon
61 Heath James / Sydney
62 Matthew Egan / Geelong
63 James Gwilt / St Kilda
64 Luke Forsyth / Brisbane
65 Mark Graham / Richmond
66 Pass / Collingwood
67 Toby Stribling / Fremantle
68 Ben Schwarze / North Melbourne
69 Daniel Haines / Fremantle
70 Pass / Essendon
71 Pass / St Kilda
72 Pass / Richmond
73 Chris Bryan / Carlton
74 Daniel Pratt / North Melbourne
75 Pass / Fremantle
76 Pass / St Kilda
77 Anthony Raso / Carlton
78 Pass / Carlton



It didn’t take me long to realise that that the 04 draft will hardly go down in history as a classic. Wow what a shocker. Who the hell is John Meesen??? Or even Ryan Willits??? They both played games.

My intention was to give my top 20 pick as I think they would be taken now, but this was made all the tougher when I realised there was barely 20 of them still getting a game. So my criteria got a bit flexible. Anyway here we go.

1.Buddy –

Yep a no brainer, the man is a freak and power forwards are worth their weight in gold. I think all clubs new he had the talent when he was a kid but he had attitude problems that pushed him down the list some. The tales of his various interviews with clubs at the draft camp are now legend.

2.Griffen –

For mine the only other superstar of the draft. Aside from power forwards the next most valuable commodities are midfielders and he is without doubt the pick of this draft. Injuries slowed his early development but despite increased attention he took out the 2010 Bulldogs best and fairest and is set for All Australian status this year.

3. Lecras –

The bargain of the draft. Bit of a stretch to have a small forward taken at number 3 as it rarely if ever happens but no one can doubt how good he has been up forward. Best and fairest and All Australian last year support that.

4.Deledio –

In all honesty he has been a bit of a disappointment but that’s not to say he has been terrible, quite the opposite. A lot was expected of him naturally enough and saving Richmond was always going to be a job too big for one man. Anyway he has been adequate and the Richmond fans are no doubt glad he is in their side.

5.Matthew Egan –

Ok this is a bit out of left field but see my comments above about being flexible. The only player in my top 20 not currently on an AFL list but that is through no fault of his own. Being forced to retire prematurely due to a foot injury after appearing set for a hugely successful career at centre half back. Did not play another game after being named to the 2007 All Australian team. No doubt would go this high if had not been injured.

6.Roughy –

He’s no Buddy but by now the quality of this draft is starting to drop away. Key forwards are always at a premium and he has kicked 75 goals, with at least 50 in his last three years.

7.van Berlo –

Cool name, reason enough.

8.Jordan Lewis –

Ok seriously I really do rate NVB. By no means a star but a hard worker who has been used as a lock down player in the past, but is now being used to get his own ball. Craig rates him too and has him as skipper. As far as Lewis goes he has shown he can excel in both the midfield and the forward line and if it wasn’t for those stupid car ads may well have been higher.

9.Jordan Russell –

Lot of questions about him early on but seems to have turned it around of late. Very important to Carlton and that’s usually a good sign.

10.Tom Williams –

Deemed a project player when taken at 6 and has turned out to be exactly that. Injuries made the progress longer than it could have been but he finally seems to be doing the right things. For the doubters, you only need to look at the fact that the Bulldogs have not seen any need to rush All Australian Full Back Brian Lake back into the line-up as evidence of the progress Williams has made. Strangely 6 and a half years on still has potential.

11.Gus Monfries –

Don’t particularly rate him but there’s not much left. Definitely has the skills to do damage in the forward line and midfield but just not consistent enough.

12.Daniel Pratt –

Was mature age when North drafted him for a second time in the 04 draft. Never been a star but a solid and reliable defender for a number of years and that’s valuable enough to make 12 in this draft.

13.The Sherminator –

Never going to be the type of bloke to have opposition fans heap praise on him, yet he would still find a spot in most sides easily enough. Doesn’t have the tank to play midfield but has enough speed to be dangerous off half back or around goals. Muppet.

14.Lynden Dunn –

Good if not spectacular tagger that may have reached the point where his coaches need to decide which way he is going to go. Is he good enough to become a running midfielder himself or does he commit to a career as a pest.

15.Knights –

Useful enough and capable of kicking bags of goals.

16.Gwilt –

Whatever

17.McGuane –

See above

18.Slattery –

Clearly battling now

19.Matthew Bate –

Bit strange given he can’t even get a game for the Dees but I do rate the Red Prawn on his day. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded to play a role on the forward line somewhere next year.

20.Tambling –

To be honest I don’t think he deserves a spot inside the top 20 but I had to give him one only to highlight just how much of a failure he has been. Taken number four and still to deliver anything to suggest this would be justified. Had he been taken at pick 50 he would have been de-listed after two years yet because he went pick four Richmond gave him over 100 games. Adelaide actually traded for him, but don’t expect them to persist with him anywhere near as long.

So there you have it. A pretty poor draft on review, two genuine stars and only a handful more to get excited about. With Buddy at pick one and Griff at pick two you could say that the moron Dwayne Russell has a point as the Bulldogs could have picked Franklin. But in all honestly that is just not fair, as Griffen is a star in his own right and ask the Bulldogs if they are happy to have him and I can guarantee you what the answer will be. Maybe the more accurate call my mate Dwayno should have made was in regards to Richard Tambling. Given that he was also taken before Franklin and has played fewer impressive games than Ty Zantuck it would seem more logical to question his selection. Maybe he should focus on just calling the games instead of trying to make outlandish statements and always calling highlights that aren’t there.

In regards to the draft in general, how bad did Richmond draft? Five picks in the top 20 and Deledio was the only decent player they ended up with. Tambling, Meyer, Pattison and Polo were all failures so I’m starting to understand the frustrations of the Tiger supporters. Have no doubt I would find a similarly poor showing if I was to look through other drafts. Also probably worth mentioning that Travis Cloke was not really eligible for my top 20 as he was taken as a father son selection.
That’s it for now, just remember should you get stuck watching the footy on Fox Sports anytime soon, be sure to send some abuse the way of @_DwayneRussell

@Mal68Au