On the 21st of January the African Cup of Nations
(AFCON) starts in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon and that means some of the top
players in the world are currently leaving their club sides, mid-season, to
link up with their national squads. With the tournament held every two years
this obviously has caused many debates over whether players should choose their
country over their club, given that the club pays their wage. FIFA wants the
timing of the tournament to change to the off-season by 2016 but only time will
tell if that will happen. What definitively will happen however is that the
tournament will switch from the even years, to odd years, to avoid having both
the AFCON and the World Cup in the same year. So we will have another AFCON
next year in South Africa, as a fan I am excited for more, somehow I don’t
think the clubs are.
Thankfully this year there doesn’t seem to have been too
many club vs country issues, with clubs generally accepting the inevitable.
What may have helped this is the fact that traditional African powers Nigeria,
Cameroon and Egypt all failed to qualify and so a number of star African
players are staying at their clubs. This addition of the AFCON is considerably
weaker without these teams especially when you consider that Cameroon and Egypt
have won six of the last seven tournaments.
Still 16 teams will take part and they all deserve their
place. Still as in any tournament there are going to be stronger teams and in
this one there is a clear favourite in the Ivory Coast. The talent in their
squad alone is enough to have them out front as favourites with names like
Drogba, Kalou, Gerivnho, Toure (x 2), Tiote, Gradel, Eboue etc. However we all
know games of football are not won on paper and their form in friendlies has
not exactly been brilliant.
Ghana are just one team who will seriously threaten the
Elephants of the Ivory Coast. Although it won’t be smooth sailing for the Black
Stars, as star midfielder Michael Essien will miss through injury and the key
man up front Asamoah Gyan has a hamstring injury and will likely miss the start
of the tournament, if not the whole thing. Still with the likes of John Mensah,
Sulley Muntari and exciting brothers Andre and Jordan Ayew (both sons of the
great Abedi ‘Pele’ Ayew) they do have enough talent left amongst the squad.
Some of the other teams considered to be a genuine chance
are Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia, with the latter the only competing nation to
have won the AFCON in the last 20 years!!! Morocco has been in poor form of late but did
get a good 2-0 win away to Senegal in a friendly last August. In this
tournament they will rely heavily Adel Taarbart to supply their tried and
tested strike duo of Marouane Chamakh and Youssouf Hadji to get them through.
Tunisia is a team made up largely of players based in their
home country which in this day and age is often thought of as a bad sign.
However the results on the pitch continue to suggest otherwise with a string of
impressive results in the lead up to this tournament. Underestimate them at
your peril.
For me though, the pick out of this bunch of hopefuls is
Senegal. They have been in impressive form for the last 12 months looking solid
in friendlies and importantly easily qualifying for this tournament. A real
embarrassment of riches up front for Amara Traore to choose from with Moussa
Sow, Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse all in brilliant form. Veteran Mamadou Niang is
not a bad fourth choice either. If they can hold their own in the midfield then
there is no reason they can’t take it right up to the likes of Ghana of the
Ivory Coast.
Of the remaining countries Guinea, Mali and even Niger
showed enough in qualifying to suggest they might cause an upset or two but I
am not sure they can take out the main prize.
If everything goes to script then the Ivory Coast will win
the trophy of the 12th of February and with that in mind I will be
taking the $2.50 odds currently on offer. They are simply the best squad and if
they can gel as a team then there should be no stopping them. However this is
Africa and things rarely go to script, in fact it would be more accurate to say
that the world of football often borders on the ludicrous. All you need to do
is look to qualifying for a few examples of this, powerhouse Egypt finishing
bottom of the group is one example. Or more ridiculous would be South Africa
playing for a draw in the final match only to find out afterwards that a draw
would not be enough to qualify.
So with all of this in mind I am going to for a back-up plan
and that is Senegal, I feel they are full of talent and have been playing well
as a unit for a long time which is oh so important in international football.
$8.50 for the win is what I will take, but if you want to go each way then you
can get a third the odds for them to make the final.
In terms of the Golden Boot there are no odds on offer just
yet but I am keen to see them come up. I like Demba Ba to continue his
brilliant club form and he would be my outright tip. Although with all the
attention he is receiving of late I assume he will be fairly short. The key for
me is to find a team that will make the final four of the tournament as these
teams will all play the maximum six games giving you the best chance, a
quarterfinal and four games just does not seem enough. I will also be looking to
find a striker who starts the matches, we are not going to see another Gedo,
who effectively won the award coming off the bench in 2010.
Looking to the Ivory Coast, Didier Drogba is the obvious
choice however his club form has been poor for Chelsea and I am not convinced
he can just turn it on for his country. Then you have Kalou and Gervinho who
have not exactly dominated for the Ivory Coast when given the chance. I will be
watching the warm up games before I would consider taking anyone here.
Similarly for Ghana it’s all about the warm up games after the injury to Gyan.
It’s hard to know who will get the chance to start and stake their claim but if
Jordan Ayew or Prince Tagoe play well and can be had at odds (I suspect they
will) then they may be worth something.
Sow and Cisse may be the better options for Senegal if Ba is
too short and Chamakh and Hadji the obvious options for Morocco if you fancy
them to make the final four.
Modibo Maiga (Mali) and Issam Jemaa (Tunisia) are the other
options I will consider when the odds are released.
With less than a couple of weeks to go, now would be a good
time to start putting some thought into the teams, players you fancy as the
games will come thick and fast once it kicks off. It will be a brilliant
tournament to watch but it’s always a little more fun with a vested interest.
Hopefully we’ll have some updates closer to the 21st
when odds are released for Golden Boot, group winners and individual matches
etc. In the meantime feel free to discuss the article and tournament in the comments
below, or tweet @mal68au and @AusSportsGuys with your thoughts and tips.
Cheers
@mal68au
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