AFL Round 10 Notes
- Only 2 Home teams covered (Nth Melb and Collingwood)
- So far 54.55% of underdogs have covered this season.
- Collingwood (7-2) and Geelong (8-1) covered AGAIN
- Fremantle (2-7), Gold Coast (2-6), Port Adelaide (2-8) and Melbourne (2-7) hold the worst records ATS.
Round 11 games of interest -
Essendon (6-3) v Melbourne (2-7)
Collingwood (7-2) v St Kilda (3-6)
Hawthorn (6-3) v Fremantle (2-7)
Port Adelaide (2-8) v Carlton (4-5)
West Coast (6-3) V Gold Coast (2-6)
On Twitter @JohnAnthonyOZ
Tuesday 31 May 2011
Monday 30 May 2011
NBA Finals Preview (Wiggum7534)
Series Preview – Miami v Dallas
A rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals is on offer as the Dallas Mavericks travel to Miami for Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals.
I could never have predicted Dallas would be in the NBA Finals. I predicted Portland would win the 1st round series (and I wasn’t impressed with Dallas in this series either), then Lakers in the semi finals and OKC in the Conference Finals.
Initially when doing the ‘form’ for this series, Dallas was my tip. I cannot see how Miami has an answer for Dirk. I’m pretty sure he can go close to averaging 35+ ppg, 8+ rpg (all defensive of course).
You double Dirk, then Terry, Peja, Kidd will have wide-open shots. You play Dirk 1 on 1, he’ll shoot that fade-away from all over the court.
Dirk will get his.
But then I looked at Miami’s team and continue to believe that no one can stop Miami – certainly not James or Wade. Only they stop themselves (with poor shot selection, turnovers).
Dallas will struggle to contain Wade and James IF Wade and James play smart and coach Spoelstra actually coaches his team. Rick Carlisle has a massive advantage of Spoelstra, in his experience of coaching teams deep into the playoffs.
I see this series going 6 or 7, with a Miami win.
Having said that, I’m taking Dallas in game 1. Why? Wade has had time off going into Game 1 (something he likes to do because being prepared isn’t worth it when you’re THAT good – or so he thinks), plus I expect James and others to be battling nerves.
The Mavs, on the other hand, are a more experienced team and know that in many cases, this is their last chance to win one. Dirk come out firing (and has the experience of having been here before) and will receive balanced support from his team mates. They will be ready for this one – their chance at redemption.
Tips – Dallas in Gm1 / Miami win series in 6 or 7
@wiggum7534
A rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals is on offer as the Dallas Mavericks travel to Miami for Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals.
I could never have predicted Dallas would be in the NBA Finals. I predicted Portland would win the 1st round series (and I wasn’t impressed with Dallas in this series either), then Lakers in the semi finals and OKC in the Conference Finals.
Initially when doing the ‘form’ for this series, Dallas was my tip. I cannot see how Miami has an answer for Dirk. I’m pretty sure he can go close to averaging 35+ ppg, 8+ rpg (all defensive of course).
You double Dirk, then Terry, Peja, Kidd will have wide-open shots. You play Dirk 1 on 1, he’ll shoot that fade-away from all over the court.
Dirk will get his.
But then I looked at Miami’s team and continue to believe that no one can stop Miami – certainly not James or Wade. Only they stop themselves (with poor shot selection, turnovers).
Dallas will struggle to contain Wade and James IF Wade and James play smart and coach Spoelstra actually coaches his team. Rick Carlisle has a massive advantage of Spoelstra, in his experience of coaching teams deep into the playoffs.
I see this series going 6 or 7, with a Miami win.
Having said that, I’m taking Dallas in game 1. Why? Wade has had time off going into Game 1 (something he likes to do because being prepared isn’t worth it when you’re THAT good – or so he thinks), plus I expect James and others to be battling nerves.
The Mavs, on the other hand, are a more experienced team and know that in many cases, this is their last chance to win one. Dirk come out firing (and has the experience of having been here before) and will receive balanced support from his team mates. They will be ready for this one – their chance at redemption.
Tips – Dallas in Gm1 / Miami win series in 6 or 7
@wiggum7534
NBA MJ v LeBron (Wiggum7534)
MJ v LeBron
Is this even an argument? Is this purely an argument because Kobe is slowing down?
As a Heat supporter, I was delighted when Miami signed LeBron (and Bosh – though that would change). LeBron had shown at Cleveland that he was a superstar. So strong, so tough to defend, and would always find a way to get his rather horrible team over the line (until it REALLY counted).
There is no doubt LeBron is struggling to re-establish himself at Miami. I’m still not completely convinced that he or Wade know whose team it is, yet, LeBron has performed very well in the crunch in the playoffs.
I’m still partial to it being Wade’s team, mainly because he has the shot that can break the heart of a team. LeBron’s jumpshot is still average at best. Anytime he shoots it, I don’t feel confident that it has a chance of going in.
The most frustrating part of LeBron is given his size, and the fact that the NBA is so weak these days insofar as hard fouls are concerned, he doesn’t take it inside enough. He far too often settles for that horrible jumpshot.
His biggest weakness for mine, however, is not that jumpshot, but his mentality. He seems far too relaxed during games. Perhaps because he knows he has Wade to help him out. He doesn’t have anything like even Kobe has in crunch time. The ability to win.
Of course LeBron has carried the Heat against the Bulls in a couple of games (including that incredible finish to game 5). And he has done quite well. But to compare him to the greatest winner of all-time (I’m not even going to apologise to Russell or Kareem). MJ won during some of the peak years for the NBA.
MJ dominated not just because he had a very very good jumper, but he knew what to do and when to do it. His decision making is up there with the best. If his shot was hot, by all means take advantage. If it wasn’t, he could find the team mate or he would drive to the basket. And this is even when he was facing the Pistons and the Knicks, two of the toughest teams of all-time, never afraid to commit hard fouls. You would think it would be a deterrent to MJ, but it wasn’t. He just kept taking the punishment. Never back down.
LeBron on the other hand, whilst obviously capable of taking it to the rack, will often take that awful step back jumpshot. Sure he can hit some, but with the game on the line, are you really relying on that?
For mine, Kobe is closer to MJ than LeBron. Kobe has that same killer instinct that MJ had (and LeBron doesn’t possess). He had that same will to win, dominating either by taking it in, or by shooting that sweet J. But even Kobe is streets away from MJ.
LeBron is an incredible talent. Still, in today’s game I would take Wade over him every time.
MJ is the greatest player of all-time. And don’t get me wrong, I always preferred Bird and Magic! But I recognise greatness, and that is exactly what MJ is. The greatest player of all-time. No contest.
@wiggum7534
Is this even an argument? Is this purely an argument because Kobe is slowing down?
As a Heat supporter, I was delighted when Miami signed LeBron (and Bosh – though that would change). LeBron had shown at Cleveland that he was a superstar. So strong, so tough to defend, and would always find a way to get his rather horrible team over the line (until it REALLY counted).
There is no doubt LeBron is struggling to re-establish himself at Miami. I’m still not completely convinced that he or Wade know whose team it is, yet, LeBron has performed very well in the crunch in the playoffs.
I’m still partial to it being Wade’s team, mainly because he has the shot that can break the heart of a team. LeBron’s jumpshot is still average at best. Anytime he shoots it, I don’t feel confident that it has a chance of going in.
The most frustrating part of LeBron is given his size, and the fact that the NBA is so weak these days insofar as hard fouls are concerned, he doesn’t take it inside enough. He far too often settles for that horrible jumpshot.
His biggest weakness for mine, however, is not that jumpshot, but his mentality. He seems far too relaxed during games. Perhaps because he knows he has Wade to help him out. He doesn’t have anything like even Kobe has in crunch time. The ability to win.
Of course LeBron has carried the Heat against the Bulls in a couple of games (including that incredible finish to game 5). And he has done quite well. But to compare him to the greatest winner of all-time (I’m not even going to apologise to Russell or Kareem). MJ won during some of the peak years for the NBA.
MJ dominated not just because he had a very very good jumper, but he knew what to do and when to do it. His decision making is up there with the best. If his shot was hot, by all means take advantage. If it wasn’t, he could find the team mate or he would drive to the basket. And this is even when he was facing the Pistons and the Knicks, two of the toughest teams of all-time, never afraid to commit hard fouls. You would think it would be a deterrent to MJ, but it wasn’t. He just kept taking the punishment. Never back down.
LeBron on the other hand, whilst obviously capable of taking it to the rack, will often take that awful step back jumpshot. Sure he can hit some, but with the game on the line, are you really relying on that?
For mine, Kobe is closer to MJ than LeBron. Kobe has that same killer instinct that MJ had (and LeBron doesn’t possess). He had that same will to win, dominating either by taking it in, or by shooting that sweet J. But even Kobe is streets away from MJ.
LeBron is an incredible talent. Still, in today’s game I would take Wade over him every time.
MJ is the greatest player of all-time. And don’t get me wrong, I always preferred Bird and Magic! But I recognise greatness, and that is exactly what MJ is. The greatest player of all-time. No contest.
@wiggum7534
Sunday 29 May 2011
NHL Stanley Cup Preview (Mal68au)
After another year full of stories (Road to Winter Classic, TV Rights, head shots , end of the Thrashers….) it all comes down to this, the battle for Lord Stanley. Vancouver and Boston will go head to head in what is the most physical battle in team sports. Seven games of brutality and mind blowing skill is enough to convert fence sitters into die hards. It’s just a shame that’s not what we will see this year.
The city of Vancouver celebrated last year as the country won the gold, now the Canucks will finally bring the cup home. They are, simply put, too good. At least too good for what the East has left to offer after regular season super powers Washington (again) and Philly choked in the big time.
Luongo in net, a solid defense and the twins up front would be enough to get the job done against the Bruins. But add to that Ryan Kesler’s emergence from fan favourite to genuine superstar and this series is already over. Tim Thomas can match Luongo in net and Chara will marshal the defence well, but the forwards are just not there. Throw in their power play woes and this one is in the books. Vancouver at $1.45 is easy money, although picking the total games is where the real value is. I like the Canucks throwing a game in Beantown so they can close it out at home in 5.
Also if anywhere is still taking bets on Kesler for the Conn Smythe then jump on the #17 train. Now if only there was a market on riots in Vancouver….
Follow me on Twitter @Mal68au
The city of Vancouver celebrated last year as the country won the gold, now the Canucks will finally bring the cup home. They are, simply put, too good. At least too good for what the East has left to offer after regular season super powers Washington (again) and Philly choked in the big time.
Luongo in net, a solid defense and the twins up front would be enough to get the job done against the Bruins. But add to that Ryan Kesler’s emergence from fan favourite to genuine superstar and this series is already over. Tim Thomas can match Luongo in net and Chara will marshal the defence well, but the forwards are just not there. Throw in their power play woes and this one is in the books. Vancouver at $1.45 is easy money, although picking the total games is where the real value is. I like the Canucks throwing a game in Beantown so they can close it out at home in 5.
Also if anywhere is still taking bets on Kesler for the Conn Smythe then jump on the #17 train. Now if only there was a market on riots in Vancouver….
Follow me on Twitter @Mal68au
Saturday 28 May 2011
Melbourne v Carlton Round 10
Deary me what a shocking game.
As a Melbourne FC member should I be concerned that we seem to be the only team playing a game style that was used 5 years ago???
Or that during the game half the team play a press and half the team play man to man?
I am sorry Dean Bailey, you seem like a stand up fella but you have lost the players.
The result was never in doubt and the Blues covered the line easily in the end.
Twitter @JohnAnthonyOZ
As a Melbourne FC member should I be concerned that we seem to be the only team playing a game style that was used 5 years ago???
Or that during the game half the team play a press and half the team play man to man?
I am sorry Dean Bailey, you seem like a stand up fella but you have lost the players.
The result was never in doubt and the Blues covered the line easily in the end.
Twitter @JohnAnthonyOZ
Friday 27 May 2011
Doomben 10000 Preview (Wiggum7534)
Doomben
Race 7
4pm
Currently – Dead 5
Weather – Sunny, 24
Incredible news that the odds on favourite Hay List has been scratched from the Doomben 10,000. Hay List was obviously a big player in the race – a race that is now more wide open from a betting perspective. With Hay List scratched, a lot of value was scratched with him.
Market looks like this (Centrebet – always best odds!):
Beaded $3
Love Conquers All $3.5
Buffering $6
Border Rebel $6.5
Black Piranha $14
All Silent $17
No Evidence Needed $21
Sniper’s Bullet $34
I envisage Buffering leading, but not at any huge speed. Border Rebel sitting on its inside, slightly trailing. No Evidence Needed, Long Conquers next, followed by Beaded, Snipers, Piranha and All Silent who is well back.
At $6.5 I think Border Rebel is pretty good value given the run it will get. It is a very difficult horse to run down once it gets to the front. Forget its last run when there was made speed that set it up perfectly for Motspur.
Beaded will be hard to hold out – a versatile horse that shouldn’t get too far back. Big fan of that horse. Buffering should give a sight in front given the muddling tempo, All Silent will not be helped. No Evidence is not quite up to these horses for mine
The lay of the race is Love Conquers All. Second favourite at $3.5 I think it is unders. Yes it goes good first up, yes it ran a good race in the Doncaster. If you can give away those odds on Betfair, look into it.
Suggestion
Win Bet – Border Rebel
Save on – Beaded
Flexi Tri – 6,7 / 6,7,8 / 2,5,6,7,8 = $12 for 100% of the dividend
Good luck
Follow me on twitter @wiggum7534
Race 7
4pm
Currently – Dead 5
Weather – Sunny, 24
Incredible news that the odds on favourite Hay List has been scratched from the Doomben 10,000. Hay List was obviously a big player in the race – a race that is now more wide open from a betting perspective. With Hay List scratched, a lot of value was scratched with him.
Market looks like this (Centrebet – always best odds!):
Beaded $3
Love Conquers All $3.5
Buffering $6
Border Rebel $6.5
Black Piranha $14
All Silent $17
No Evidence Needed $21
Sniper’s Bullet $34
I envisage Buffering leading, but not at any huge speed. Border Rebel sitting on its inside, slightly trailing. No Evidence Needed, Long Conquers next, followed by Beaded, Snipers, Piranha and All Silent who is well back.
At $6.5 I think Border Rebel is pretty good value given the run it will get. It is a very difficult horse to run down once it gets to the front. Forget its last run when there was made speed that set it up perfectly for Motspur.
Beaded will be hard to hold out – a versatile horse that shouldn’t get too far back. Big fan of that horse. Buffering should give a sight in front given the muddling tempo, All Silent will not be helped. No Evidence is not quite up to these horses for mine
The lay of the race is Love Conquers All. Second favourite at $3.5 I think it is unders. Yes it goes good first up, yes it ran a good race in the Doncaster. If you can give away those odds on Betfair, look into it.
Suggestion
Win Bet – Border Rebel
Save on – Beaded
Flexi Tri – 6,7 / 6,7,8 / 2,5,6,7,8 = $12 for 100% of the dividend
Good luck
Follow me on twitter @wiggum7534
Thursday 26 May 2011
The Punt! To Dunk or Not to Dunk...That is the question.
With only 0.01 seconds left Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder a meaningless dunk by Jason Terry sent the gambling world into a frenzy. If the dunk counts then the Mavericks win by 6 and both sides 'push'.
As the twitter world exploded with punters desperately hoping if fell on the right side, the decision was made that the clock had reached 0.00 before the ball left the hand of Terry and therefore the score ended up 100-96 and therefore those that took the +6 on the Thunder were lining up for some cash money and the Mavs bettors were left with another bad beat story.
She is a cruel game 'The Punt'. Thankfully those stories tend to even out and they just contribute to stories reminiscing over a few cold beers with friends over the years.
BACK! (AFL ATS records after 9 Rounds included) 26 May 2011
Have been a bit lax with the blog with a few small irons in the fire keeping me and the boys busy.
The past month has been a big month with the NBA and NHL Playoffs getting to the pointy end and the pretenders sent packing and the MLB season well under way.
Dallas has been a monster ATS (Against The Spread) this post season and finished off the Oklahoma City Thunder today to reach the NBA finals for the first time since 2006. The Thunder will have plenty to think about over the off season with no offensive help for Westbrook and Durant they fell short in something that will surely only make them stronger. It will be interesting to see how the Thunder treat the off season with an obvious need for more scoring help and 2 young potential superstars.
Westbrook who is a shoot first point guard will create plenty of headaches for the Thunder hierarchy. Can you tame his talents and make him a perfect 'Robin' for Kevin Durants 'Batman'? He is a streak shooter and does not get other players involved which can cause problems when his shot is not dropping. Make no mistake this is Kevin Durants team and he will grow into one of the all time greats. The relationship between Durant and Westbrook probably means they will be the corner stone of the franchise for the next 10 years. However I would be interested to see what other teams were willing to offer for Westbrook who would be a legit No.1 on his own team as a poor mans D Rose.
In the East the Miami Heat look to finish of the Chicago Bulls tomorrow in Game 5 in Chicago. Rose has battled hard all series but his individual brilliance is not enough to offset the James/Wade connection. I have a personal view that with the Big 3 setting up shop tomorrow anything but a Finals appearance would be a failure no matter what bodies they had on the floor with them. Now they are one game away from a rematch of the controversial 2006 Finals when Miami beat Dallas. I expect the Heat will be too strong and finish off the series and set up a intriguing 7 game series against Dallas.
Plenty has happened in the AFL with Geelong beating Collingwood in a Friday night blockbuster a couple of weeks ago in a game that at least has created a little interest in the premiership race this year.
Certainly an interesting point that both Collingwood (6-2 ATS) and Geelong (7-1) are first and second on the ladder and both hold the best record ATS so far this year. The Pies were expected to continue the dominance from last year, however the Cats were every ones tip to drop off into the pack and therefore the lines were set accordingly. The trick as always is to get on the gravy train before the bookmakers adjust the odds!
ATS record after 9 rounds -
Adelaide 5-3
Brisbane 4-4
Carlton 3-5
Collingwood 6-2
Essendon 6-3
Fremantle 2-6
Geelong 7-1
Gold Coast 2-5
Hawthorn 5-3
Melbourne 2-6
North Melbourne 4-4
Port Adelaide 1-8
Richmond 6-3
St Kilda 2-6
Sydney 4-4
West Coast 6-2
West Bulldogs 4-4
Some interesting teams pop out namely West Coast (6-2) and Fremantle (2-6), with the Dockers missing big Sandilands for 4 weeks it could be a nice time to lay the Dockers especially away from home.
Follow other members of the team on twitter -
@wiggum7534
@JohnAnthonyOZ
The past month has been a big month with the NBA and NHL Playoffs getting to the pointy end and the pretenders sent packing and the MLB season well under way.
Dallas has been a monster ATS (Against The Spread) this post season and finished off the Oklahoma City Thunder today to reach the NBA finals for the first time since 2006. The Thunder will have plenty to think about over the off season with no offensive help for Westbrook and Durant they fell short in something that will surely only make them stronger. It will be interesting to see how the Thunder treat the off season with an obvious need for more scoring help and 2 young potential superstars.
Westbrook who is a shoot first point guard will create plenty of headaches for the Thunder hierarchy. Can you tame his talents and make him a perfect 'Robin' for Kevin Durants 'Batman'? He is a streak shooter and does not get other players involved which can cause problems when his shot is not dropping. Make no mistake this is Kevin Durants team and he will grow into one of the all time greats. The relationship between Durant and Westbrook probably means they will be the corner stone of the franchise for the next 10 years. However I would be interested to see what other teams were willing to offer for Westbrook who would be a legit No.1 on his own team as a poor mans D Rose.
In the East the Miami Heat look to finish of the Chicago Bulls tomorrow in Game 5 in Chicago. Rose has battled hard all series but his individual brilliance is not enough to offset the James/Wade connection. I have a personal view that with the Big 3 setting up shop tomorrow anything but a Finals appearance would be a failure no matter what bodies they had on the floor with them. Now they are one game away from a rematch of the controversial 2006 Finals when Miami beat Dallas. I expect the Heat will be too strong and finish off the series and set up a intriguing 7 game series against Dallas.
Plenty has happened in the AFL with Geelong beating Collingwood in a Friday night blockbuster a couple of weeks ago in a game that at least has created a little interest in the premiership race this year.
Certainly an interesting point that both Collingwood (6-2 ATS) and Geelong (7-1) are first and second on the ladder and both hold the best record ATS so far this year. The Pies were expected to continue the dominance from last year, however the Cats were every ones tip to drop off into the pack and therefore the lines were set accordingly. The trick as always is to get on the gravy train before the bookmakers adjust the odds!
ATS record after 9 rounds -
Adelaide 5-3
Brisbane 4-4
Carlton 3-5
Collingwood 6-2
Essendon 6-3
Fremantle 2-6
Geelong 7-1
Gold Coast 2-5
Hawthorn 5-3
Melbourne 2-6
North Melbourne 4-4
Port Adelaide 1-8
Richmond 6-3
St Kilda 2-6
Sydney 4-4
West Coast 6-2
West Bulldogs 4-4
Some interesting teams pop out namely West Coast (6-2) and Fremantle (2-6), with the Dockers missing big Sandilands for 4 weeks it could be a nice time to lay the Dockers especially away from home.
Follow other members of the team on twitter -
@wiggum7534
@JohnAnthonyOZ
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