Monday 29 August 2011

NFL - Jets v Giants 29 August 2011

NFL Preseason Week 3 - NY Jets @ NY Giants

The New York Jets and New York Giants game was delayed with Hurricane Irene causing trouble on the east coast over the weekend.

The game was moved from Saturday into the Monday night slot (Tue EST).

As noted late last week when the markets opened the total for the Jets Giants at 37 we quickly took a ticket on under 37. This number did not last long with the total quickly heading down around 34.5.

Sportingbet refreshed the market and had the Jets Giants total set at 33.5 which we snapped up straight away.

The markets overseas were refreshed after the postponement and the total opened up at 34.5 but quickly got bet up around 35, 35.5 and 36.

AussieSportsGuys plays -

Jets @ Giants under 37
Jets @ Giants over 33.5

We have a bigger outlay on over 33.5 with a nice play on the under 37 for a sneaky middle opportunity.

The final game in week 3 of the preseason we hope to finish off on a great note with AussieSportsGuys having a nice profitable weekend.

@AusSportsGuys

Sunday 28 August 2011

College Football - 28 August 2011

We have taken the following plays for the opening weekend of College Football. More will follow!

WAKE FOREST @ SYRACUSE
Total o49

BOWLING GREEN @ IDAHO
Bowling Green +8

NORTHWESTERN @ BOSTON COLLEGE
Total u46.5

SAN JOSE STATE @ STANFORD
Total o52.5

COLORADO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
Colorado State -4.5

TULSA @ OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma -21

BOISE STATE @ GEORGIA
Total u52

COLORADO @ HAWAII
Total u57



@AusSportsGuys

NFL Preseason Week 3 *Update*

We have added further plays for Week 3 of the NFL Preseason.

Been a good start cashing on Washington +5, and almost hitting the middle in the Packers Colts game.

The pending plays are -

CHICAGO v TENNESSEE
Chicago +3.5

MIAMI v TAMPA BAY
Miami +4

SEATTLE v DENVER
Total u38

JACKSONVILLE v BUFFALO
Buffalo -2.5

HOUSTON v SAN FRANCISCO
Total o35.5

DALLAS v MINNESOTA
Total u37

NEW YORK JETS v NEW YORK GIANTS
Total u37



Saturday 27 August 2011

NFL Preseason Week 3

As you will see we have taken a few plays this week after being pretty quiet in week 1 and 2 of the NFL preseason.

After yesterday taking Washington +5 here are a list of our pending plays this weekend -

GREEN BAY V INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay -9
Indianapolis +11
Total o38
Total u41

NEW YORK JETS v NEW YORK GIANS
Total u37

CHICAGO V TENNESSEE
Chicago +3.5

MIAMI v TAMPA BAY
Miami +4

SEATTLE v DENVER
Total u38

@AusSportsGuys

Thursday 25 August 2011

Scottish Premier League - Week 6 Preview


A very very tough weekend last weekend. The much spruiked Motherwell/Draw bet against Rangers did not come off, and I have been mourning since. I maintain that while Rangers definitely looked more of a threat going forward, they were very lucky with all three goals, while Motherwell had no luck at all (hitting crossbar twice, disallowed Murphy goal etc). Still, I shall not dwell on what might’ve been, and we shall get our money back this weekend with a further six SPL games.

Again, Hearts, Rangers and Celtic all appear in Europe - Rangers the only side playing at home. As always, I have highlighted the better bets below, but a preview is provided for all games.

Inverness CT v Kilmarnock (Kilmarnock @ $2.88)

Killie face the troublesome trip to Inverness this weekend but I expect them to be too good. Killie have played some outstanding football this season (though last week were a bit ordinary), and I expect their class to be too much for Inverness to handle.
I still maintain that Inverness have not been that bad this season. They’ve grabbed some decent results and had a rash of bad luck. However, they do currently have as many as 7 first-team regulars out and for that reason I will go with Killie.
Look for James Dayton to have a day out for Killie.

Rangers v Aberdeen (Rangers @ $1.25, Rangers HT/FT @ $1.67)

Rangers caused me some grief last weekend when they were 3-0 winners against table leaders Motherwell away from home. They return home this weekend against an Aberdeen team who finally scored their first goals of the season.
Despite Rangers playing in Europe, I expect no hangover as they will man-handle Aberdeen comfortably. Aberdeen are a very ordinary side, made to look better due to Hibs ineptness. Rangers will dominate this game from start to finish, so will be taking the half time/full time double with Rangers as well.

St Mirren v Celtic (Celtic @ $1.35)

Celtic were costly last weekend. They totally dominated St Johnstone but could not find the back of the net. A missed penalty, two shots hitting the upright, two (more valid) penalty claims denied…incredible bad luck. Their bad luck was further compounded when St Johnstone scored a goal from a deflection that left keeper Foster with no chance. Neil Lennon absolutely roasted his players after the game, so will be interesting to see how they bounce back this weekend. They also have a trip to Sion to content with.
I see Celtic bouncing back this week with a win. They are playing one of my “money” teams in St Mirren which presents me with a moral dilemma…
Nigel Hasselbaink returns from suspension and will provide St Mirren with a much needed boost in attack. While I can see St Mirren causing Celtic some concern, I expect Celtic’s class to shine through in the end.

Hearts v Hibs (Hearts @ $1.70)

The first Edinburgh derby of the season. Usually, these games could go either way, regardless of position in the table, but at this point of the season I cannot see Hibs even getting a point. The fact that Hearts have a European game Thursday means it will probably be a little closer than it otherwise should be, but I still see them home comfortably.
If you want to see comedy, check out the Hibs defence in their last game against St Mirren. Spectacular stuff!

Other Games

St Johnstone v Dundee United (Draw @ $3.20, Dundee Utd @ $2.70)

A tricky game. Dundee Utd should be too good for St Johnstone, they definitely have the players to prove this. Their results, however, have been a little disappointing overall. They should’ve beaten Dunfermline, having the better of the chances, but failed to beat the goalkeeper. I can see them dominating this game, but perhaps struggling to truly enforce their dominance on the score sheet.
St Johstone are under the odds, most likely due to their terrific (and very lucky) win at Celtic Park. I’ll be taking the draw but saving on the Dundee Utd win.

Dunfermline v Motherwell (Draw @ $3.20, Motherwell @ $2.50)

Another tricky game. Motherwell should win. They should. Dunfermline have done well in churning out results, without necessarily being the better team and for that reason, I think they’re in with a chance of at least forcing a draw. Their goalkeeper, Paul Gallacher, has been outstanding at times this season, including last weekend’s shut out of Dundee Utd.
Motherwell will be keen to bounce back following their disappointing loss against Rangers. The score line definitely did not tell the true story of the game.
I’ll be taking the draw, with maybe a couple of bob on the Motherwell win.

@Wiggum7534

College Football - Middle Tennessee St v Purdue 25 August 2011

News has broken that Purdue starting QB Rob Henry is done for the year with an ACL injury.

Henry was the boilermakers co-captain and not only the leading passer for the 2010 year, he also led the team in rushing yards and touchdowns.

The starting job week 1 will fall on the shoulders of Caleb TerBush who has only attempted 10 passes in his college career so far back in 2009.

Purdue face a non-conference opponent first up and the line opened -17.5 and had worked up to -18.5.

With the news breaking only a week out from the season started we have taken Middle Tennessee +18.5 with the view that it might become value when the game is placed back on the boards in Vegas.

@AusSportsGuys

Wednesday 24 August 2011

NFL Play - Bears v Titans 24 August 2011

Week 3 NFL Preseason -

Chicago @ Tennessee

Chicago +3.5

@AusSportsGuys

NFL Play - Jets v Giants 24 August 2011

Loaded another week 3 NFL Preseason play today -

New York Jets @ New York Giants

Total u37

@AusSportsGuys

NFL Play - Browns v Eagles 24 August 2011

We have had another interest play on a middle for this weekends Cleveland v Philadelphia game.

Eagles -6.5
Browns +7.5

@AusSportsGuys

NFL Play - Packers v Colts 24 August 2011

We have been pretty quiet this NFL preseason however just played the Green Bay v Indianapolis game.

At this stage taken over 38 total game score. The number is moving up and we will continue to monitor.

We have also taken Green Bay -9 and Indianapolis at +11 and try and hit a nice middle heading into the regular season.

@AusSportsGuys

Tuesday 23 August 2011

Scottish Cup 23 August 2011

After a disapointing weekend we are back in action tonight with the Scottish Cup.

Tonight we are keen on St Mirren winning at $1.81 and in the Aberdeen v Dundee game a draw or Dundee victory.

We have had a great start to the year and even with our upset pick Motherwell going down we snagged a couple of $3.00+ draws.

Good luck!

@wiggum7534

Friday 19 August 2011

Free Bet Entries 19 August 2011

Ok the lines have closed and here are the entires in the running for the $50 worth of free bets courtesy of AussieSportsGuys.

@peterh07 - Hawthorn 15
@wozzza - Hawthorn 31
@admarks - Hawthorn 19
@Downisthenewup_ - Hawthorn 15
@Thesharpnumber - Hawthorn 8
@Hiho1980 - Hawthorn 22
@JessKirkley - Hawthorn 11
@A_Okeefe - Hawthorn 22
@Dionalessi - Hawthorn 23
@BradHarding - Hawthorn 32
@Mono85 - Hawthorn 28
@steveq91 - Hawthorn 42
@fatsuit - Hawthorn 26

@JoshSawyer - Carlton 9
@Adrianmartini - Carlton 12


Hawthorn obviously the special!!!

Good luck

Remember in the event of a tie we will have a tiebreaker tomorrow.

The winner will get $50 worth of free bets on Sunday nights SPL game between Motherwell and Rangers.

@AusSportsGuys

Wednesday 17 August 2011

Win $50 worth of free bets with AussieSportsGuys

We here at AussieSportsGuys are offering another $50 worth of free bets to one of our lucky followers. The free bet will be on the Motherwell-Rangers Scottish Premier League match this weekend.

As you will see in our SPL Week 5 preview on the blog you will see we are very keen on the chances of an upset this weekend.

$25 will go towards a draw result @ $3.50
$25 will go towards a Motherwell win @ $5.50

In order to stake your claim for the $50 worth of free bets, all you have to do is message or tweet @aussportsguys with the final margin of victory (and winner) of this Friday night’s blockbuster between Carlton and Hawthorn. (NO LATER THAN 6PM THIS FRIDAY 19/08/11 one entry per person)

The person who tweets/messages their selection by 6pm Friday, and correctly selects the winning team and is closest to the final margin without going over will receive the free bets.

In the event more than one entry selecting the same winning margin we will have a tie break on Saturdays West Coast v Essendon game.

You win the freebet and Motherwell win or draw...we will send you the profits..it is that simple.

DM us @AusSportsGuys or email AussieSportsGuys@hotmail.com

@FLGracin has already won a free $50 wager on Tennessee +11.5 against Florida in the college football.

*Preview*

Motherwell v Rangers (Draw @ $3.50, Motherwell @ $5.50)

When I saw these odds go up I think I fainted. Motherwell, the top of the table team who have not yet conceded a goal, paying $5.50 the win? $3.50 the draw? Rangers, with all their injury woes plus their inability to find fluent football or form, paying $1.57 the win?
Needless to say I have dived very heavily into the draw and the Motherwell win. The draw is probably the most likely outcome for mine, but I cannot pass up the opportunity to get $5.50 for Motherwell when they are playing the type of football they are playing. Yes, I know they haven’t been fully tested by either of the Old Firm as yet, but they are definitely the in-form team.
In addition to this, Rangers have a tricky trip to Slovenia to get over during the week. I see them fatigued and, possibly, carrying more injuries into this game.
Very confident of these two bets. Cannot see Rangers winning this.

@AusSportsGuys @Wiggum7534 @Mal68au

Scottish Premier League Week 5 Preview (@Wiggum7534)

Scottish Premier League - Week 5 Preview

Another outstanding weekend last week for the SPL bets, 8 of the 9 bets coming home – with, again, a last minute goal costing us a clean sweep.

Another full schedule of games on the weekend – three games Saturday, three games Sunday. Important to note Celtic, Hearts and Rangers are all playing on Thursday night (Friday morning AEST) in Europe.

As always, I have highlighted the better bets below, but a preview is provided for all games.

Motherwell v Rangers (Draw @ $3.50, Motherwell @ $5.50)

When I saw these odds go up I think I fainted. Motherwell, the top of the table team who have not yet conceded a goal, paying $5.50 the win? $3.50 the draw? Rangers, with all their injury woes plus their inability to find fluent football or form, paying $1.57 the win?
Needless to say I have dived very heavily into the draw and the Motherwell win. The draw is probably the most likely outcome for mine, but I cannot pass up the opportunity to get $5.50 for Motherwell when they are playing the type of football they are playing. Yes, I know they haven’t been fully tested by either of the Old Firm as yet, but they are definitely the in-form team.
In addition to this, Rangers have a tricky trip to Slovenia to get over during the week. I see them fatigued and, possibly, carrying more injuries into this game.
Very confident of these two bets. Cannot see Rangers winning this.

Celtic v St Johnstone (Celtic @ $1.18, Celtic HT @ $1.57)

I’m not convinced Celtic have yet found their proper form, yet they are still too good for the SPL. They do have injury worries and their defence looks incredibly fragile (will probably back Sion in their Europa League game), but they destroyed a quality SPL team last weekend in Dundee Utd. Yes the scoreline flattered them, but they are still too good with too many attacking options. They will own at least 65% of the ball in this one.
St Johnstone lost at home to Dunfermline last week, and they did not look overly good in the process. I’m leaning to a 2-0 or 3-0 Celtic win.
Note: Amusingly, Celtic to lead at half time and full time is only $1.50. Odd!

Dundee United v Dunfermline (Dundee United @ $1.70)

Finally a Saturday game to preview. Dundee United were embarrassed by a 5-1 score line last week in a horrible loss at Celtic Park. The loss wasn’t as bad as it appeared on paper as Dundee United had decent opportunities. They return home this week against a Dunfermline side that is travelling okay.
The Pars won away to St Johnstone last week, but I do not see a repeat result this week. The Pars are definitely not in Dundee United’s class and I do expect the home side to triumph comfortably.

Hibs v St Mirren (St Mirren @ $3.40, Draw @ $3.25)

Hibs are awful. Really awful. Its not just the fact that they are struggling for form, leadership from their manager etc, it is also that watching their last game against Killie, half the time players were not running back, there was no urgency (despite being smashed) and they generally spent most of their time complaining to each other.
St Mirren are one of the better teams in the SPL this season, and I have them sneaking into a top 6 finish (at this stage anyway). They were incredibly unlucky not to draw with Motherwell and that is the best form at this stage of the season.
On that basis I will take the St Mirren win, while saving on the draw.

Other Games

Aberdeen v Inverness (Draw @ $3.20)

An interesting fixture. In general I lean to Inverness with the win. They have not been that bad in any of their games, and are able to find the back of the net.
Aberdeen are the only team in the SPL that has failed to score a goal. They do return home here and unless they wish to be relegated, this is the sort of game they should at least get a point out of. For that reason only, I am taking the draw with this one.

Kilmarnock v Hearts (Draw @ $3.20)

Not massively confident here. Killie were outstanding against Hibs last week, while Hearts are a quality side. Hearts do, however, have a midweek European venture against Tottenham (what an absolute cracker that will be!) which I suspect will take a lot out of them.
Killie could possibly win this but I’ll be taking the draw at nice odds. Killie play a sensational style of football that other teams in the SPL could learn a lot from.


@Wiggum7534

Thursday 11 August 2011

NFL Week 1 Plays - 11 August 2011

As you will have noticed over the past couple of weeks we have taken some plays on NFL Week 1.

Below are the list of plays with the updated price now available with Sportingbet.

Indianapolis @ Houston
Taken - u47.5
Now - 45.5

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Taken - u37.5
Now - 36.5
Taken - Cle -3
Taken - Cin +4.5

Carolina @ Arizona
Taken - u38
Now - 36.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Taken - u41.5
Now - 40.5

New York Giants @ Washington
Taken - u39
Now - 37.5

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Taken - u42
Now - 41

Atlanta @ Chicago
Taken - Atlanta h2h $1.95
Now - Atlanta -2

Denver @ Oakland
Taken - u41.5
Now - 40.5

@AusSportsGuys

Wednesday 10 August 2011

Scottish Premier League Week 4 Preview

Scottish Premier League - Week 4 Preview

Outstanding weekend last week when the four tips all saluted, plus the tweeted u2.5 goals for the Aberdeen/Celtic game. Hope you followed the tips! (with perhaps a multi?)
This week we’re back to a full fixture, seeing all 12 teams in action.
As always, I have highlighted the better bets but a preview is provided for all games.

Celtic v Dundee United (Celtic @ $1.25, Celtic HT/FT Double @ $1.67)

Celtic are simply too good for the SPL. Celtic should accrue (and surpass) 100 points by the end of the season. They have far too many attacking options, are very strong in midfield and their defence is definitely good enough to withstand any SPL teams. The loss of Emilio Izaguirre is huge, but will affect them more in Europe than domestically.
Dundee United are a pretty decent team. The loss of Goodwillie definitely hurts, but they have options to provide the goals. They were lucky to draw with St Mirren last week, and that in itself is another reason they have no chance here. Load up on the Celtic win, and also the half-time/full-time double!

St Mirren v Motherwell (Draw @ $3.25)

This is a very interesting encounter. St Mirren have been outstanding so far this season. One win and two draws. For mine, they are somewhat unlucky they do not have 3 wins.
Motherwell have also looked good so far this year, and sit atop the SPL table. This has been mainly due to the rising star Jamie Murphy who has been outstanding. They were a touch lucky to get a win against Hearts last week (Hearts were down to 10 men before M’well took over).
If Hasselbaink was playing (suspended) I would have happily taken (and loaded up on) St Mirren to win, however, in his absence I’ll have to go with the draw.

Hearts v Aberdeen (Hearts @ $1.70)

Am leaning towards Hearts in this one. I really cannot see where Aberdeen’s goals will ever come from. While I think Hearts have taken a backwards step following the sacking of Jim Jefferies, they still have too many options. They were decent last week against Motherwell (until going to 10-men) and I think that form is more than good enough here.

Inverness CT v Rangers (Rangers @ $1.38)

This is the early game on Saturday. I’ve tossed and turned with this game. I still do not believe Inverness are travelling that badly, and it is common knowledge Rangers aren’t travelling that well. Inverness will be missing a few players for the game though and I think it would be just about sackable if McCoist could not get the 3 points here on that basis. If Inverness were fully fit, I’d probably be tipping a draw (may have a couple of dollars on that anyway).
The $1.38 for a Rangers win is hardly the right odds though. Hmmm…a draw for $4.35…

Kilmarnock v Hibernian (Kilmarnock @ $2.38)

This is a tricky game with both teams having last weekend off from SPL action. Killie have looked okay so far this season (including draws against Dundee United and Motherwell). Hibs have looked pretty ordinary in their two games, a loss to Celtic and a very very lucky win at Inverness. I have Hibs finishing in the bottom 3 this season.
So I’ve changed my mind just now to the Killie win! (originally thought a draw – oh don’t come back an haunt me!)

Other Game

St Johnstone v Dunfermline (Draw @ $3.25, Dunfermline @ $4)

Not confident about this one but have concluded the draw is the way to go. Cannot possibly back St Johnstone as $1.85 favourites, and was leaning to a Dunfermline win initially. The $4 on offer for a Pars win is outstanding odds, and worth a dollar or two.
St Johnstone did not play last weekend, and their form so far has been inconclusive (poor home draw, then okay at times in a 2-0 loss at home to a struggling Rangers). Dunfermline are the newly-promoted side that are still finding their way in the SPL. They did look fairly decent, and managed to score 3, in last week’s game at home to Inverness.

@wiggum7534

Saturday 6 August 2011

NBA - The Fans View (@wiggum7534)

Check these links first…

http://es.pn/nJ5AhT

http://es.pn/pp9PUe

First (and side) point – What an absolute waste of talent Michael Beasley is. When he was first signed by Miami, I was a little excited, but cautious. Then he didn’t step up when needed, had the whole ‘marijuana’ photo thing, then moved to Minnesota. I thought, great for Miami, good for him – he obviously needed a new start.

Then he continues this crap of being a head case. A less talented Dennis Rodman really. #sackhim
Second (and main) point – The NBA players are, essentially, wanting more money without a hard cap. The owners of teams are obviously rich people and, in most cases, own NBA teams as a hobby moreso than a money making scheme. But they are entitled to receive a return on their investment.

Now while I don’t necessarily believe the word about most owners losing heaps of money, I do think the players are massively overpaid. There are obvious stars within the NBA, and I will never argue their worth, but so many role players, bit-part players, second string players, that are on huge bucks. Absolutely ridiculous.

These recent incidents, involving Barnes and Beasley, just sums up the frustration fans have with the game.

It has changed so much from what I call the ‘good old days’, where players were well paid, provided great value for money, and played the game MAINLY because of their love of the game. I am not convinced that this still applies to quite a lot of players in the NBA today.

Their professionalism and overall attitude is disgusting. There are countless incidents over the past 5 years that would illustrate this, including the two links above.

The fact that these players are on millions of dollars, yet would prefer to strike than to provide fans with an outlet during these tumultuous times in America, disgusts me. I understand that they have a limited working life, but that has been their choice. They CHOSE to play basketball, understanding that, at most, they would have a career that lasts 15 odd years. They CHOSE to leave college early without actually getting a degree in anything that can last them after their playing days (most players anyway).

I find the whole thing appalling. The NBA has turned me off the game for a little while (which is fortunate because it appears as though there will not be a 2011-12 season). Until such time as theplayers (yes I’m putting it all on them) realise what an incredible benefit they have, at getting paid massive dollars for playing a game, the lockout will continue, and the disgust of fans will continue on.

When the NBA does return, I really hope fans boo the players, or (better yet) barely turn up to games.
There is definitely a reason that the NCAA tournament is watched by Americans far more than the NBA.

@Wiggum7534

NCAA Football Futures 6 August 2011

The college football season is creeping closer with only a few weeks until opening weekend.

We are monitoring the news and markets daily and will swoop on any value numbers that appear.

Today we have taken Alabama at $7.00 to win the SEC Title. The number represents excellent value with most markets having them between $2.50 and $3.10.

As you will note from previous posts we have already taken South Carolina to win the SEC Title at $9.00 so we are cheering for a Crimson Tide v Gamecocks title game at the end of the season.

We have also added another NFL Week 1 play with the Denver @ Oakland game u41.5

@AusSportsGuys

Friday 5 August 2011

NFL Week 1 Plays - 5 August 2011

Added some more plays for the opening round of the NFL.

Atlanta @ Chicago - Atlanta h2h $1.95
Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Cleveland -3 $1.95
Buffalo @ Kansas City - u42

@AusSportsGuys

USA Today College Football Preseason Poll

1. Oklahoma (42)
2. Alabama (13)
3. Oregon (2)
4. LSU (2)
5. Florida State
6. Stanford
7. Boise State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Texas A & M
10. Wisconsin
11. Nebraska
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia Tech
14. Arkansas
15. TCU
16. Ohio State
17. Michigan State
18. Notre Dame
19. Auburn
20. Mississippi State
21. Missouri
22. Georgia
23. Florida
24. Texas
25. Penn State

Thursday 4 August 2011

Scottish Premier League Week 3 (@Wiggum7534)

We started the weekend on a huge roll, with Rangers beating St Johnstone 2-0, thereby capturing both the win bet on Rangers ($1.55 were best odds I saw) and the under 2.5 goals ($1.95). An excellent start that, unfortunately, we did not continue to take advantage of. Still, if you followed the tips you would have ended up for the day (ok, only slightly).
This week we only have 4 SPL games. Again I will highlight the better bets but shall provide commentary on all games.

Aberdeen v Celtic (Celtic @ $1.30)

This is a no-brainer and, of course, the bet of the weekend. Sure, anything can happen in football, but Aberdeen didn’t get the points in week 1, despite looking pretty decent, then lost to St Mirren. Celtic are a class above, and definitely have Aberdeen’s number. On that basis, I’m taking Celtic at $1.30, and throwing them into every conceivable multi I can find.

Dunfermline v Inverness CT (Draw @ $3.25)

Originally when I was working out my selection on this game, I was adamant I’d be backing Dunfermline. This was based on the fact that Dunfermline weren’t that bad in week 1 (against St Mirren who have since impressed), and that Inverness disappointed (and more importantly COST ME!) last weekend against Hibs.
Still, upon completing my thorough review, I’m actually leaning the draw. Inverness were a touch unlucky not to beat Hibs (and more importantly, even more unlucky to lose), while Dunfermline have since barely overcome a third division side in the first round of the League Cup.

The other games on which I may not bet (ok, I already have) are:

Dundee United v St Mirren (Draw @ $3.40)

I will assume that David Goodwillie is at Blackburn by the time this game is played. I have been a bit disappointed in Dundee United so far this season. While they were able to capture all three points against Hearts, I felt they were not the better team. St Mirren have been playing well above their pre-season predictions. As a result, I think I’m going to take the value of the draw ($3.40). I may be going insane predicting this but I think Dundee United are unders at $1.73.

Motherwell v Hearts (Motherwell @ $2.30, Draw @ $3.25)

What is going on at Tynecastle? Weren’t Hearts travelling fairly well? (yes I know about Jefferies 1 win from his last 14, but most were irrelevant games!) In any case, I’ve steered clear of this one because there are too many unknowns with a change of manager.
I will be taking Motherwell for the win, with a few bob on the draw also. But my best advice is to perhaps steer clear of this one or, at least, small bets only.

Okay, there probably can’t be 3 draws out of 4 games, and I do advise to tread warily. Throw the Celtic win into all multi’s you plan on having this weekend and you’ll add a little bit of a bonus dividend to your other selections.

Wednesday 3 August 2011

The rabble that is Newcastle United (@Mal68au)

What the hell is going on at Newcastle United? An English Premier League club that from afar appears more and more as though it is being run by a group of amateurs. Lack of planning and direction, poor financial decisions, infighting, the list goes on. To make this clear yes I am a proud Newcastle fan, have been for many years, so I have been following these developments for a little while now.

To a degree it all started when Mike Ashley took over as owner of the club in 2007 from Fat Freddy Shepherd . Mike Ashley is a successful businessman in his own right with an estimated wealth of £700mil largely due to his budget sports clothing chain Sports Direct. However I am certain he would now admit buying Newcastle was a mistake. Firstly because when he took over the club he promised to bring them out of debt only to realise they were £100mil more in debt than he originally thought when he bought then. Secondly he took over from Fat Freddy who was first and foremost a Newcastle fan (Mike did not follow football) and would always opt for the big money signing to please the fans rather than the prudent decision. So effectively after buying the club out of his own money he had to then spend a further £100mil of his own coin and then be expected to go out and sign big name players like the last owner who put the club in this debt to begin with. He was on a hiding to nothing.

So he allowed a few low money signings to be made, free transfers, set a maximum wage limit in place and effectively made the club viable. In doing all of this he did however end any hope of Newcastle returning to the Champions League. This did not sit terrible well with the fans, myself included to an extent, who all had delusions of grandeur regarding the status of their club in Europe. So Mike tried to sell the club, however he was intent on getting back what he put into the club which he never did get. All of this led to Newcastle being relegated at the end of the 2008/09. It all honesty was just what the club needed, a reality check at all levels. Management, players and fans. The players that stuck around were committed to the cause and were far too good for the Championship, storming back into the Premier League with a sense of unity and purpose.

Now this brings me to the last twelve months when things were all seemingly going well, hell Mike even felt safe enough to sit back in the stands at the home games.

Before I go any further I would like to point out that up until now I can understand pretty much every decision Mike Ashley had made. I may not agree with them but I am a fan so I want to see Newcastle seal the deal to bring Luka Modric to the club and I will get upset when we don’t agree to pay his wages and then see him sign with the spuds. But essentially I knew that for the good of the club the right decisions were being made through this period. For every Modric we could have signed, we may well have ended up with another Hugo Viana or Xisco or Jean-Alain Boumsong or Michael Owen or Patrick Kluivert. Now I know the likes of Kluivert pumped a fair portion of their wages back into the local kebab industry, but that small sample above above is just a terrible record on big name/money signings. So up until this point in history I am with you Mike.

So where did it all go wrong? Well with Newcastle sitting in 11th place in early December 2010 (not too bad for a promoted team) manager Chris Hughton was sacked!!!! The club released a statement saying that they were after a manager with more experience. Fans media and more importantly the players were shocked and upset. The players expressed their disappointment both in the media and also through twitter. Even expressing, that if anything was to happen regarding Chris that they would have expected him to get a contract extension.

So if they were to sack Chris Hughton then from my perspective (remember I fully trust all decisions) wow they must have a super experienced manager lined up, I myself was thinking if Martin O’Neil signs then all is forgiven and then some. But no Allen Pardew was appointed. ALLEN PARDEW. What has he done? Well he got West Ham promoted and then took them to the FA Cup final, unfortunately that was as good as it got. He got fired the next year. Then at Charlton he got them relegated and looked like he was going to get them relegated from the Championship before they parted company with him. Then he was at Southampton where he achieved nothing and lasted about a year before he was moved on again. What about this career screams better than Chris Hughton? All it did was upset the most settled 18 months in the recent history of Newcastle United.

Then we move into January 2011 and young star striker Andy Carroll is sold to Liverpool for £35mil. Now this in itself will upset a lot of people as he is a local boy and a very good player at that, but personally I don’t have an issue with the sale. Would have been great to keep him, but the nature of the game we love is that if the smaller clubs develop stars then they sell then to bigger clubs, in this case for huge amounts of cash #tss. What the problem is, is that in the wake of the sale Pardew was regularly being quoted in the media saying that Mike Ashley had promised him that all of the £35mil would be reinvested in players. Not some, but ALL. Now in the days and weeks after that, predictably Newcastle were being quoted exorbitant prices for any player they enquired about. So, no further signings were made until this northern summer and only one has been made for a fee, that of Yohan Cabaye for £5mil whilst Kevin Nolan has been sold (we will get to this later) for £3.5mil. My maths tells me that to date that is a net expense of £1.5mil, just £33.5mil shy of what the fans and players were promised. Even if you want to get technical and say the Nolan fee should not get included, why are we still short £30mil? Sure there are still a couple of weeks left before the transfer window shuts but the noises coming from Pardew are that he is “hopeful” of one more signing, hardly sounds like he has access to eight figures. If he never had access to all the £35mil then Ashley should have come out and corrected him right from the start instead of creating false hope in the fans, players and Pardew himself, he has lied to the fans and the players and they are not happy. Interesting to note that Sports Direct who had been struggling of late was able to post a tidy profit in the first quarter of 2011 due to an increase in sales, I’m just saying….

Next we come to sale of Kevin Nolan. Club captain and leading goal scorer for the past season, which is all the more relevant given the sale of Carroll and lack of replacement. Nolan had two years to run on his contract and wanted assurances he would be able to remain at the club beyond that. The club would not give him those assurances and decided to get rid of him whilst they could still get some value out of him. Surely for the sake of £3.5mil you are better off with a player you know to be a proven goal scorer and a great leader loved by all his team mates. Half the battle is identifying these players and convincing them to sign for your club. Once you have them it should be easy to keep them there. Anyway the players weren’t happy and took to the media and twitter again.

Now comes the clubs pre-season tour of the USA. I could not believe that for a variety of reasons only about half a squad was making the tour. Joey Barton and Nile Ranger were denied Visas for criminal records, Yohan Cabaye was denied a Visa for some other reason. Williamson and Routledge stayed in the UK and throw in a few injuries and this left the squad far too thin. As a result there were not enough fully fit players to field a full side resulting in Ryan Taylor aggregating an existing injury. Surely a professional club would have sent some reserve team players over to prevent such debacles. To make the whole situation even more laughable, on returning to the UK Chiek Tioté was refused a Visa. How can this happen? He has played there for the last twelve months yet he has been forced back to the Ivory Coast to sort this out while the rest of the club finishes the preseason. Who are these amateurs that are in charge?

It was at about this time that the twitter rants started, first it was Jose Enrique. Recently linked with a move to the likes of both Arsenal and Liverpool, Enrique was committed to the cause at Newcastle but was frustrated with the lack of ambition should by the club, especially in the transfer market. Firstly claiming that the club is letting all of the major players leave, and that is not the fault of the players. Then stating that the club will never again fight to be amongst the top six sides with this policy. Apparently the fans deserve the best not what they are doing with the club. He then finished by talking about how they lie all the time and they don’t want to spend any money on bringing quality players in, that’s why everyone is going. Jose was fined a massive £100k by the club for this and the assumption is that he will now also be sold, although Pardew thinks he will stay. I can’t see why he would though.

Pretty soon after this occurred Joey Barton started to let loose on twitter also. I had been reading about it in the media but I decided to read a few of his tweets myself and now follow him. I suggest if you have any interest in this and if it is all still unfolding you should follow him yourself, @Joey7Barton. If for no other reason you will get the truth from his perspective, for better or worse he will not be gagged. It started when he was linked with a move to Man U and came out and made it clear that it was nice but he was not interested and wanted to stay. Then he said he would have to leave Newcastle at the end of the year as the club and he could not agree on a contract, he wants to stay but it appears it won’t be possible. Then only a day or two ago after a friendly loss to Leeds United he tweeted “If only we as players could tell the fans exactly how it is, without them above fining us lots of money. There will be a time and a place.” Followed by “If it wouldn't effect team morale and cause unrest within the dressing room, am certain Jose's comments would be the tip of the iceberg.....” then “And again it would be left to those magnificent fans to pick up the remnants of their once great football club. #hadenoughofcertainpeople” and “If I wanted to leave, I'd just come out and say "I want to leave" Things need addressing as am not prepared to go through a relegation again”.

He followed this by getting involved in a back and forth with a supposed fan. As a result of all of this, Joey Barton was transfer listed yesterday. Whilst to a degree I can understand this as he is proving to be a disruptive figure, it is disappointing as it is yet another quality footballer out the door. But what the truly astounding thing is, the club is prepared to let Barton leave on a free transfer despite him having a year to run on his contract. This is absolutely unheard of and defies logic. Little more than a week ago he was drawing interest from top clubs in the Premier League and now we are willing to let him go free of charge. Seriously all of these issues come back to fact that we are letting our better players go and are not prepared to spend money on good players, now we are letting are better players go for free, this is ridiculous. The whole club is a rabble and the only players that are happy about the way things are going are the reserve and youth team players because they will all be experienced Premier League players in ten months time.

I have never seen a professional sports team so poorly managed in all facets of the business (except maybe Port Adelaide). I don’t know what needs to be done, but its becoming clear that Mike Ashley really does have no idea what he is doing and he is just rubbing everyone at the club the wrong way. Until there is unity off the pitch I find it impossible to believe there will be unity on the pitch. With that in mind, matchday 1 at St James Park against Arsenal in just undertow weeks I see as an absolute lock for the gunners. Newcastle Really has four very poor strikers to choose from in Best, Ameobi, Lovekrands and Ba (maybe Ranger too) so I don’t know where the goals are coming from. Add the fact the Nolan won’t be scoring any and Barton won’t be supplying any and you have to doubt the threat they pose. Cabaye and Tioté will work hard in the midfield but I am not sure how creative they are. Hatem Ben Arfa will miss due to injury. There has to be some doubt over Enrique playing given the uncertainty surrounding his future and the club does not have another recognised left back. Now Arsenal has not had the perfect preseason either but they are poles apart in comparison. Whether both Fabregas and Nasri play I doubt it, but Gervinho is a huge inclusion. I can’t see any other result but an Arsenal win. $1.80 Centrebet, $1.75 Sportingbet. Get on.

@Mal68Au