NCAA Basketball - 1 February 2012

Fresh off a 3-0 day, here are the plays already tweeted for tomorrow's games.

New Mexico/Air Force o118.5 - 3 units
Tennessee/Kentucky u132 - 1 unit

Here is the late play that was added (as tweeted)

Wisconsin/Penn State u112 - 1 unit (no unit was listed but wherever that occurs, we're only taking one - apologies!)

AFCON - Ivory Coast v Angola

Taking another play on the Ivory Coast tomorrow just head to head but very confident they should get the job done. Finding it hard to get media on the team but I assume Kalou will be out for a while with the hamstring from last game but still too good.

Ivory Coast @ $1.70 (sportsbet)

Was also very tempted to take a play on Burkina Faso as I think they are the stronger team and very unlucky not to have any points to date, but the rumours of an understrength starting 11 have scared me off. I won't be up before the kickoff time but if you are and want an interest maybe take the draw if they are fielding a weakened side or go Burkina Faso if full strength.

To recap our progress in the tournament so far we collect on our first two plays but missed on our 2 unit play on Senegal against the co-hosts. Then as Senegal have been eliminated we can also write off our plays on them to win the tournament and Ba to top score.

So so far we are 2-3 (40%) for a 2.92 unit loss, however things may start to come good again tomorrow.

NCAA Basketball - 31 January 2012

Here are the plays as tweeted earlier today.

College of Charleston -3 (at Samford) - 2 unit
Missouri/Texas u145.5 - 1 unit
Princeton/Pennsylvania o125.5 - 3 units

NCAA Basketball - 30 January 2012

Three plays so far.

Georgia Tech/North Carolina u143.5 - 4 units (number may go higher in which case I'll take more)
Stanford/California o130.5 - 3 units
Notre Dame/UConn u129 - 2 units

More to follow.

Michigan/Ohio State o127 - 2 units
Miami (Fl)/Boston College u130.5 - 1 unit

NCAA Basketball - 29 January 2012

Here we go...

Tulane/Rice u121 - 4 units
Mississippi State/Florida u147 - 4 units
Santa Clara/Pepperdine o126.5 - 8 units
Texas/Baylor o141.5 - 4 units
Columbia/Cornell o122.5 - 2 units
Tulsa/SMU o115.5 - 3 units
West Virginia +11 (at Syracuse) - 3 units   - expect this may move in Syracuse's direction - will take more if that occurs)
Boise State ML (v Wyoming) - 1 unit
Arkansas +11.5 (at Alabama) - 1 unit
San Diego State/Colorado State u138.5 - 1 unit
Utah/USC o104 - 1 unit
Mississippi State +10 (at Florida) - 3 units
Auburn/Tennessee u119 - 3 units

Keen to make plays on the Louisville, Bradley and Fresno State games if SportsBet put their numbers up!!!

Numbers up. Here are the last 3 plays.

Louisville/Seton Hall o128.5 - 5 units
Bradley/Creighton u149.5 - 3 units
Fresno State/New Mexico State u146.5 - 6 units

SPL - 28 January 2012

One play on this weekend's SPL games.

Inverness CT v St Mirren - Inverness win (@ $2.10) and Draw (@ $3.30)

Not a great deal of value in this weekend's games, but happy to back Inverness here. A unit on each.

NCAA Basketball - 28 January 2012

Couple of plays for tomorrow's games.

Loyola Chicago/Wright State o105 - 2 units
Illinois-Chicago/Detroit u136 - 2 units

NCAA Basketball - 27 January 2012

The plays.

Arkansas State/Denver o117.5 - 4 units
San Francisco/Santa Clara o151 - 2 unit
San Jose St/Idaho o134.5 - 3 units
Washington State +9 (at Arizona) - 2 unit

More to follow.

Montana ML (at E Washington) - 8 units

And more...

Utah St -7.5 (v Hawaii) - 2 units
Northern Colorado ML (at Idaho St) - 2 units

Another.

Weber State -8.5 (at Sacramento State) - 4 units
Washington -7 (at Arizona State) - 2 units
Indiana/Wisconsin u126.5 - 2 units
Western Kentucky/Florida Atlantic o129.5 - 2 units
Fresno State/Louisiana Tech o135 - 2 units
Portland State -7.5 (v Montana State) - 2 units

One last play.

Boston College/Virginia u114.5 - 3 units

NHL - 26 January 2012

Taking a play on the last game before the All Star break and we are going with the under, don't see many goals here.

Detroit/Montreal under 5.5 @ $1.77 (sportsbet)

AFCON - Equatorial Guinea v Senegal

After the first round of matches our two group winner bets are looking ok and we cashed our only two match plays. None of our top goal scorers have scored yet but no player has scored more than 1 so we are still in the game. We also wisely steered clear of Senegal to win Group A who were paying $1.40 and are now out to $3.50 after their loss to Zambia.

In saying that I am going to take a play on them tomorrow morning to beat the other winners from Group A in Equatorial Guinea. Amara Traoré has promised us changes from the side that looked terrible defensively early against Zambia. Will that be a change in formation or simply a few players off the bench? Personally I think they are more suited to two up front with Niang to make way but only time will tell.

On the EG side of things the opening day win was impressive but Lybia was far inferior to the opposition that Senegal will present. The home crowd appear to be worth a goal but I suspect a goal may not be enough. Just think Senegal have too much on the line and will have learnt a lot from the first match.

Senegal @ $1.73 (sportsbet) 2 units

A-League - Adelaide v Newcastle 25 January 2012

Adelaide v Newcastle
Draw @ $3.50

@AusSportsGuys

NCAA Basketball - 26 January 2012

Here are the plays as tweeted earlier. Some numbers no longer available.

Pittsburgh -9 (v Providence) - 5 units
Minnesota/Michigan State o132.5 - 5 units
Notre Dame/Seton Hall u130.5 - 3 units
Northeastern -6 (v Delaware) - 3 units
Kansas State/Texas Tech u134 - 2 units
Southern Mississippi/East Carolina o135.5 - 1 unit

Two added plays.

Duke/Maryland u150.5 - 2 units
Western Michigan/Ohio u140 - 1 unit

Another one.

Ohio State -21.5 (v Penn St) - 2 units

NCAA Basketball - 25 January 2012

Two unit play.

Tennessee +9 (at Vanderbilt)

Three units.

Ball State -1.5 (v Akron)

NHL - 25 January 2012

Taking a play on Boston today. The Bruins are usually a good bet at any time but I just think given the players missing for Washington this one is too good to go past.

Boston @ $1.60 (sportingbet)

SPL - 25 January 2011

Small play on tonight's game.

Motherwell v Dunfermline - Draw @ $3.75

Only a small play. Motherwell are atrocious at home, and while I shouldn't be reading too much into Dunfermline's last performance (though it was good), just figure the only value to be had in this game is with the draw.

Motherwell should win but given their home record I'm happy to get value with the draw.

AFCON - Ghana v Botswana

First off it was a great result for us this morning in our hopes for Tunisia to top Group C. Morocco were always looking like the toughest challenger, so a win was huge. Not home yet though as Gabon also got the 3 points and with their co-hosts EG getting a win on Sunday it looks like the home crowds may be worth a goal.

Anyway onto the early game tomorrow and Ghana take on tournament outsider Botswana. I am by no means convinced that Ghana are genuine contenders for the title, mainly due to the quality of players they have missing and some concerns over their strikers, or should I say lack of them. Gyan is the go to man but is he really of the same class as some of the other poachers getting about in this tournament? Also I am not sure he is fully fit, but of more concern is that beyond him is a real lack of depth. Prince Tagoe is not going to score many, Jordan Ayew is class but maybe a little young and then you are relying on his brother to get some from a little deeper maybe. I don't know, not convinced.

With all that said they come up against Botswana tomorrow in a group match and not the Ivory Coast or Senegal in the final. With that in mind I am excited to see them strut their stuff and am confident they will chalk up a victory. Like most of these less fancied footballing nations Botswana will likely prove tough to break down so not expecting many goals, but taking Ghana for the win. I will even try and get up for the 3am start as I would like to see Ghana first hand and hopefully both Ayew brothers start and maybe collectively the team can change my perceptions of them.

Ghana @ $1.36 (sportsbet)

NCAA Basketball - 24 January 2012

One small play today.

Cincinnati +5.5 (v Syracuse)

AFCON - Ivory Coast v Sudan

The Ivory Coast open their campaign early tomorrow morning against Sudan and I think they really should be too strong.

Sudan failed to find the back of the net in their two warm up games against Tunisia and Senegal. Tunisia are not thought of as the most defensively sound team and based on what we saw or Senegal this morning... well I reckon I might get one past them.

So I really find it hard to see Sudan scoring tomorrow. I think the Ivory Coast will win and they will look to get an early goal and then control the game from there.

HT/FT Double - Ivory Coast/Ivory Coast @ $1.72 (sportsbet)

Cheers

NCAA Basketball - 22 January 2012

Early play. Depending on where the line moves, may increase the size of the play.

Arkansas ML (v Michigan) - 4 units

UCLA ML (at Oregon) - 1 unit

Added play

Xavier -1.5 (at Dayton) - 1 unit

SPL - 21 January 2012

Playing 5 of the 6 games this week, think there is some value.

Dundee United v Motherwell - Draw @ $3.30

Hibs v St Johnstone - Draw @ $3.30

Inverness CT v Hearts - Draw @ $3.30

Kilmarnock v Dunfermline - Kilmarnock @ $1.57

Rangers v Aberdeen - Rangers HT/FT double @ $1.91

Enjoy!

Scottish Premier League - Half Season Recap

Scottish Premier League – Half Season Review

What an exciting first half of the SPL season. First it appeared as though Celtic were too good, then Rangers could not drop points, then they fell apart (ok, Naismith got injured).

Such a strong start to the season with many talking points. Let’s dive in…shall we?

Celtic

Definitely the team to stop. We said it in our pre-season review, this team is very good. No no no, not if you compare them to the great teams of years past but the early season injury suffered by Emilio Izaguirre definitely hampered their ambitions.

On 15 October 2011, Celtic headed into the half-time break at Kilmarnock, trailing 3-0. They also trailed Rangers by 10 points in the league. An absolutely incredible second half unfolded in which Celtic, somehow, responded with 3 goals and drawing the game. This point was without question the defining moment in Celtic’s season. There had been far too many issues with hot-head Neil Lennon calling out players prior to this that it seemed almost certain that he would lose his job. Not because he is a bad manager but because he seemingly had completely lost the plot with his team. Seemingly, they did not respond to his continual public beratings (Jose Mourinho anyone?).

Since this game, Celtic have won 12 and drawn 1 – including the all-important 3 points in their only Old Firm game in this time.

They have also overtaken Rangers, leading by 2 points.

Gary Hooper and Anthony Stokes have been outstanding for Celtic up front, with Craig Forrest playing the creative midfield role outstandingly. Even Georgios Samaras seems to have a new lease on life since moving out wide. If only Celtic could do something about that abysmal defence (I think they have).

Projected Finish - Champions

Rangers

Unfortunately, I cannot see Rangers winning the title this year. I couldn’t see it at the start of the season, and I still can’t see it now. The injury to Scottish star Steven Naismith is too catastrophic to their chance. He is without question their most important player (again, I said this at the start of the year). His creativity, flair and aggression lifts his otherwise somewhat uninteresting side to incredible levels. He also had scored 9 SPL goals in 11 matches (not bad for an attacking midfielder). Nikica Jelavic is an outstanding forward but definitely cannot do it all himself.

Things went wrong for Rangers the instant Naismith was injured. They’ve fumbled their way through games, winning many they shouldn’t have, but also getting the results they deserve with losses at Kilmarnock and St Mirren, and a draw at home to St Johnstone.

The change of managers from Walter Smith to Ally McCoist was a big enough change, but add to that all the financial problems and this team hasn’t got a chance this season. As much as I don’t like to admit it (I am a Rangers fan after all!) Celtic has the title this year.

Projected Finish – 2nd

Hearts

Hearts have been all over the place this year. They started the season off strongly with a draw at Rangers (we tipped it too!) before losing to Dundee United. This team seemed to be doing okay after advancing in the Europa League and then, all of a sudden, decided to sack manager Jim Jefferies. Now, it wouldn’t be the first time that Hearts owner Vladimir Romanov sabotaged his own team, but his was kind of odd.

In any case, Hearts replaced Jefferies with a little known, barely reputable Portuguese manager in Paulo Sergio. The results since have been sometimes outstanding, sometimes crap. They have, however, put together a string of results that has seen them move into third place.

I do not expect it to last, though they definitely have the talent. Why? Well, at some point the players might like to get paid. Yes, there are more than just a few issues at Hearts (including the owner telling the world that every player at the club is up for sale). And the payment of wages in a timely manner is definitely one. And definitely in the forefront of the players’ minds.

I do expect that once the transfer window closes, the Hearts players will lose interest (given they are heading nowhere fast – without money) and the club will flop back into 5^th place.

Still, they do have some very good players like David Templeton and Rudi Skacel (this guy will be a star at one of the mid-table teams in the EPL).

Hearts definitely have the talent, just probably not the motivation.

Projected Finish – 4^th

Motherwell

Motherwell has been quite strange this season. They’ve been absolutely outstanding away from home (one of the best away records, yet quite shite at home. Below, I have listed their home record and their away record.

Home

Played	Won	Draw	Lost	For	Against	Points
10	3	3	4	7	10	12

Away

Played	Won	Draw	Lost	For	Against	Points
11	7	1	3	17	15	22

There is really no explanation for this incredibly difference. Yes the fans are somewhat more hostile toward them at home, piling on the pressure, but surely this is just because they’ve been performing so poorly?

In any case, I do like the squad. Their away record is their truest form. They’re an outstanding side with very strong players across the park.

Nicky Law, Tom Hately, Keith Lasley, Omar Daley and Jamie Murphy have all shared time in the limelight for this very talented squad. Check out the wonderful Jamie Murphy article here à LINK

Motherwell just need to perform at home as they do away and they will definitely finish way clear of the chasing pack.

Projected Finish – 3^rd

This is where things start to get tricky. There are a number of teams that could finish in positions 5 or 6. For those that know the SPL, know that being in 5 or 6 is very good prior to the splitting off of the league.

The SPL is a strange competition that after everyone has played each other 3 times, the league splits off into a top 6 and bottom 6 to finish the season off (ie. 5 more games).

Therefore, teams that are in the 5 or 6 would benefit greatly by either:

a)      Moving up the table with a good win or two against a strong side; or

b)      At the very least gain extra revenue from extra Old Firm games and games against other top sides.

It is odd.

In no particular order, I have St Johnstone, Dundee United and St Mirren as teams that could finish in the top 6 (sorry Killie!)

St Johnstone

The Saints are far exceeding their pre-season expectations - mainly because of the outstanding (and completely unforseen) striking duo of Francisco Sandaza and Cillian Sheridan. These two attackers have been, without question, the best striking duo in the SPL. They have combined for 19 of St Johnstone’s 27 goals (and set up more!).

The Saints do have other top players including Liam Craig, Murray Davidson and Peter Enckelman but it is Sandaza and Sheridan who have St Johnstone in the position they are.

Projected finish – 7^th

Dundee United

This team has upset me. Filled with so much potential, so many young Scottish stars, yet they fumble their way through the season. Is it the manager? Is it the hot-head of Johnny Russell? Is it the loss of David Goodwille? (how’s England going for you?) Completely unsure.

To me, they have definitely a top four team, yet they’ve put in some completely disgraceful performances that have seen them slip to 7^th. They’re definitely better than that.

Russell seems to have found form and despite the loss of Scott Allan, this team still has top 6 written all over them!

Projected finish – 6^th

St Mirren

Another team that, at times, I cannot figure out. This team is very good, and somewhat underrated. A fair amount of talent in this team, maybe it is just that I overrate them. Who knows?

In any case, they currently reside 8^th in the SPL. Their biggest win came on Christmas Eve at home to Rangers, topping the champions 2-1.

I still have them rated well, with such players as Craig Samson, Jeroen Tesselaar, Paul McGowan and, my personal favourite, Nigel Hasselbaink. If they could find more consistency, there is no reason they could not finish 5^th in the SPL.

Projected finish – 5^th

Kilmarnock

Not a huge fan of Killie. They definitely have some talent with Craig Heffernan and James Dayton but overall, they don’t excited me greatly.

Currently 6^th in the SPL, but will fall a touch as the season progresses.

Projected finish – 8^th

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

My favourite team outside of Rangers (until Ross County join the SPL next year). So very well managed by former Rangers star Terry Butcher, this side has had the worst luck of a team that I can ever remember. Injuries and incredibly unlucky refereeing decisions have cost this side more than a handful of games. Led by young stars Jonathan Hayes, Andrew Shinnie and Nick Ross, this team has a very bright future – assuming they can hang onto their stars.

Inverness will not get relegated. They are too good. If they had luck this season, I would project a 7^th place finish. Alas, it was not to be (yes I know the season’s not over yet!). Think they could push for 7^th, but 9^th might be more realistic given the way it has gone so far.

Always underrated, don’t lose faith!

Projected finish – 9^th

Aberdeen

Craig Brown is their current manager. He was Scotland’s manager once, and a very good one. I have no idea what he has done at Aberdeen. He certainly hasn’t improved them one iota since taking charge last season.

Aberdeen lack wingers and any form of creativity. This makes it very hard for their forwards. I don’t like watching their games. Do you?

Projected finish – 10^th

Hibs/Dunfermline

You may recall a few months back, we at @AusSportsGuys took a huge plunge on Hibs to get relegated. This was paying $11 at the time. Now they definitely have not improved since that time (despite hiring a new manager – thank Christ!), but fortunately for them, Dunfermline have done everything in their power to ruin any chance our bet had of getting up.

Both teams are completely horrid. I do not wish to discuss them (unless begged).

Projected 11^th – Hibs

Projected 12^th – Dunfermline

NHL - 20 January 2012

Just the one play today and taking a red hot St Louis at the puckline over Edmonton

St Louis -1.5 @ $2.13 (sportingbet)

Jamie Murphy - Young Scottish Star

As a monstrous fan of the Scottish Premier League (and please, no more tweets asking me why!), I am a strong believer that Motherwell forward Jamie Murphy (that’s @Jamiemurphy89 to you chum!) has the potential to be great. He is a genuine Scottish talent.

A very versatile and creative forward with very good passing ability and strong finishing skills. Yes, I am a fan.

He is also only 22 years old.

Murphy has been a Motherwell lad for most of his career. He joined their U13’s squad and followed through the ranks before making his first team debut in the 2006-07 season.

He has scored 21 goals in 139 appearances for Motherwell – not a brilliant record. But he is more than goals – especially to his Motherwell team and their fans.

Murphy’s contract expires at the end of next season, and there have been many rumours that clubs from the EPL might be ready to pounce on the highly rated youngster.

I for one would love to see him sign a one-year extension, play out next season in full and truly develop all of his skills – and absolutely dominate the SPL like he has the potential to do.

Then at the end of next season, make the big money move to an EPL club (ensuring Motherwell are well-rewarded for their investment in his career).

He is a star, and you will definitely hear a lot from him both at club and international level.

Stay with Motherwell Jamie, the fans and club need you.

African Cup of Nations - Tournament Plays

So we are now only a couple of days away from the start of the AFCON and the sports books all seem to have up some more odds for us to look over. These future markets are brilliant for giving us some sort of interest in each and every match throughout the tournament, although we will still make a play on an individual match when we have a strong feel for the game.

Anyway down to the business of my plays for the tournament. As discussed in my preview I like the Ivory Coast to win the tournament with Senegal as my value bet. My views haven’t changed much after a couple of wins each in warm up matches, although the Ivory Coast were more convincing. The odds available have changed slightly but I am definitely sticking with these selections.

Ivory Coast @ $2.62 (centrebet) for 3 units

Senegal @ $7.50 (sportingbet or tom waterhouse)

Sportsbet are also running a market for the winner of each of the four groups. Group A has Senegal as the $1.40 favourite and they take on tournament outsiders Zambia, Lybia and co-hosts Equatorial Guinea. Senegal will qualify for the quarter-finals but their warm up games suggest to me they may just work into the tournament slowly and so a $1.40 is too short for me.

In Group B the Ivory Coast are very short at $1.22 and they will meet Angola, Sudan and Burkina Faso in another weak group. In this case I think the $1.22 is entirely justified as they were comfortable in their warm ups which to me was a little unexpected. I see them winning all three group games and am therefore taking 5 units.

Ivory Coast to win Group B @ $1.22 (sportsbet) for 5 units

Group C is the most even group with Morocco listed as $2.40 favourite, Tunisia next at $2.88 and then the other hosts Gabon, at $3.75. Niger are the outsider at $10. For me this group comes down to the second match of the group which will be played between Morocco and Tunisia. The Tunisian squad are largely based at home and have played together a lot, in fact Tunisia won the African Nations Championship last year in which only home based players are eligible. They have been in solid form in the lead up games and I really expect them to settle a lot quicker than other squads. Morocco are the danger and possibly the better team but I just think a hot start may be enough to get Tunisia a win or a draw which should see them win the group. An injury to Issam Jemaa means he will miss the group stage which is a massive blow but I still think $2.88 is the value.

Tunisia to win Group C @ $2.88 (sportsbet)

The final group is another competitive one with Ghana, Mali and Guinea all chances to progress and Botswana effectively making up the numbers. I have Ghana winning the group ahead of Mali but with no real conviction here. I am just not sold on Ghana yet, having not seen this makeup of the national team play it is hard to judge and could the miraculous recovery by Gyan leave him susceptible to a recurrence of his hamstring injury? I think at this stage I will just look forward to watching their first game against Botswana which surely they will win. As for Mali I like them to progress ahead of Guinea but am not prepared to take them to win the group despite the $3.50 on offer.

Finally we move onto the top goalscorer market. As indicated in my previous article, Demba Ba is my outright pick and $7 is currently on offer. Despite strong competition from within his squad from Cisse and Sow, I believe Ba started both warm up games which was the reassuarance I was looking for. Group A is a relatively weak group so goals should be on offer and if everything goes to plan Senegal will likely have an “easier” quarter-final matchup against Angola, Burkina Faso or Angola. All signs point to a semi-final appearance and the ideal six games.

Demba Ba @ $7 (sportsbet)

The next player I am taking for the top goalscorer is Salomon Kalou. The Ivory Coast will be in the mix right til the end and again they have a softer group stage where goals should be a bit easier to come by. Kalou started and scored in both warm up games too which is always a good sign. Drogba will get a lot of chances for the Ivory Coast but I just don’t know about his form and the odds on offer for the veteran don’t reflect his form. $17 for Kalou on the other hand is juicy.

Salomon Kalou @ $17 (sportingbet)

The final bet I am making is a bit of a value play on a Mali striker Cheick Diabaté at $34. Whilst Diabaté has not exactly been smashing them in for Bordeaux he does have a fantastic international record and is a real beast up front for Mali. He does start on the pitch and he will take their penalties which is always a plus. If Mali can finish 2^nd in their group then they will play the winner of Group C in a quarter-final which is a real bonus because they avoid the other winners likely to be Senegal, Ivory Coast and Ghana. So I think they are a live semi-final chance. Sportsbet are offering each-way odds for this market paying to four places at ¼ odds, so I might take 1 unit each way.

Cheick Diabaté @ $34 (sportsbet) for 1 unit each-way

That wraps it up, seven plays for 14 units. If you like the look of all of those then go ahead and ride them all with me, otherwise I encourage you to take the ones that make the most sense to you. I do think there is plenty of value there and hopefully we will have some luck. I will likely share my thoughts on some individual games throughout the tournament so stay tuned and please share your thoughts and comments too. Beyond that, the first games are Sunday morning so enjoy the show.

@mal68au

NCAA Basketball - 20 January 2012

Vanderbilt +6.5 (at Alabama) - 3 units

More plays to follow.

Long Beach State -1 (at Cal Poly SLO) - 3 units

Washington +1 (v California) - 2 units

NCAA Basketball - 19 January 2012

New Mexico -10.5 (5 units)

This missed. And the dreaded run continues.

NHL - 18 January 2012

As tweeted earlier I am taking an early play on Toronto for their game against Ottawa tomorrow. I think this will help us keep this solid form going.

Toronto @ $1.85 (sportsbet)

EDIT

Adding a further three plays to todays card, they are:

Rangers @ $1.61 (sportsbet)

Edmonton/Columbus under 5.5 @ $1.92 (sportsbet)

Washington -1.5 @ $2.65 (sportingbet)

Think we should go alright

Scottish Cup - 4th Round Replay

The oldest Cup competition in the world continues tonight (and tomorrow night) with three replay games.

We're taking a play on one.

Hamilton @ $3 (v St Mirren - Sportingbet)

Please though, don't call it the Scottish FA Cup. #insulted

NCAA Basketball - 17 January 2012

After a brief refresh, we're back with college basketball.

Only one play today.

Baylor +7 (at Kansas) - 2 units

NHL - 17 January 2012

Just the one play today and we are going to take the under in the Boston/Florida game. No chance of a push with under 5.5, so hopefully we go a bit better than the money back scenario yesterday

Boston/Florida under 5.5 @ $1.81 (sportsbet)

NHL - 16 January 2012

One play today as the Rangers go to Montreal, like the over in this one.

Rangers/Montreal over 5 @ $1.84 (sportsbet)

NHL - 14 January 2012

One play today in the late game, where I'm liking the look of the under here with some decent odds on offer.

Anaheim/Edmonton under 5.5 @ $1.92 (sportsbet)

Cheers

Scottish Premier League - 14 January 2012

Playing a multi for something different - only a one unit play.

This week's games are pretty tough. I am expecting at least 3 draws on the weekend.


St Johnstone v Rangers - Draw @ $3.80

into

Celtic v Dundee United - Celtic win @ $1.25

Multi = $4.75

Good luck!

A-League - Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory

Big game in the A League tonight with the revitalised Reds traveling to Melbourne to take on the Victory with Jim Magilton in charge for the first time.

The Victory are favourites and probably deserve to be so at home but we think they are too short. United have been getting some great results of late and we expect them to come in a secure another valuable point tonight.

Draw @ $3.50 (sportsbet)

NCAA Basketball - Half-Season Review - Part Four

Teams To Watch Out For

There are a number of teams that are not necessarily overly well-known and that could cause trouble before season’s end. Below I’ve listed a few that I’ve followed that I believe will cause trouble both in conference and tournament play.

Iona – One of my faves. They play great team basketball led by point guard Scott Machado and forward Michael Glover. This team shoots well, passes well and by golly scores well (2^nd in nation). Looking like MAAC winners, and therefore an NCAA Tournament berth. Will upset teams.

Arkansas – First year coach Mike Anderson was part of the coaching lineup that helped Arkansas win the 1994 NCAA Tournament. Anderson has adopted the same principles in game play as that national champion team, which has seen Arkansas have an outstanding season so far. Their high tempo pressure defense has caught many a team out, including #16 Mississippi State. Expect Arkansas to cause all sorts of trouble to teams in an even SEC.

Virginia – Those that read the ACC Preview article know we’re fairly keen on the Cavaliers. They play outstanding basketball, led by senior forward Mike Scott (16.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg). This team will make it to the NCAA Tournament and could cause some problems. I would also look for this team to perhaps beat Duke on their home floor. Definitely 3^rd best in ACC.

San Diego State – Despite losing four starters, this team appears to have lost no momentum. The Aztecs are putting together a very solid record, with solid wins over Long Beach State and California. They also had very good performances against Creighton and Baylor in their only two losses. This team scores, rebounds and stifles opposition attacks. I like them. A big test this weekend at home to UNLV. Should make the NCAA Tournament.

Marshall – SHOULD get to the NCAA Tourney and I feel they’ll push Memphis hard for Conference USA honours.  They’ve had some outstanding performances, such as the rout of Iona, the 6 point loss at #1 Syracuse, wins over Belmont, Cincinnati and Rice. An all around solid team who are 4^th in the nation in rebounds, led by Dennis Tinnon (junior forward) averaging 10.3 ppg, and 10.4 rpg. Will definitely caused trouble in the post-season.

Teams from the Atlantic 10 – This conference is looking very good this year and should send four or five teams to the big dance (unheard of!). Dayton, Saint Josephs, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, Xavier, La Salle, Temple. All of these teams have a chance and it would not surprise me if they caused some major upsets should they get there.

If I’ve left any out by all means comment, or tweet @wiggum7534 or @AusSportsGuys. Your thoughts and comments are valued.

Elite 8

Here are the teams I expect to make the Elite 8. Of course it is difficult to predict without knowing which brackets teams will be in, but that is half the fun.

The Teams

Syracuse

Ohio State

North Carolina

Kentucky

Baylor

Michigan State

UConn

UNLV/Iona/Missouri

Ok that’s 10 teams, couldn’t separate those for the 8^th place. Think Iona are a chance as the Cinderella team.

Duke are overrated and will not make it that far. Georgetown could, Indiana could, maybe Kansas could - but teams like Duke, Louisville, Michigan have no chance.

That's it. The final part is complete. No more. All gone. Thanks for reading.

NCAA Basketball - 12 January 2012

5 unit play

Buffalo +6.5 (at Ohio)

NCAA Basketball - Half-Season Review - Part Three

Players That Have Impressed/Disappointed

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky) has been an absolute standout so far this season, picking up the slack whenever Terrence Jones is sad, most impressively in the 69-62 win over Louisville in which he finished with 24 points and 19 rebounds. But its more than just the stats, Kidd-Gilchrist is a leader.

Anthony Davis (Kentucky) is an incredible presence inside both offensively, benefiting frequently from lob passes, and defensively having had 8 games of 5 or more blocks. Davis is definitely making the pundits think twice as to who the premiere freshman big man is.

Doug McDermott (Creighton) is almost solely responsible for Creighton’s impressive season this year. McDermott is an outstanding forward, with outstanding range and a solid post game. He averages 25.2 ppg and shoots at 63% 2FG and 58% 3FG! If you get a chance, definitely check this guy out.

Damian Lillard (Weber State) – Weber State are definitely on track to win the Big Sky conference this year, and one real reason for this is Lillard. Since doing the Big Sky preview, I’ve definitely kept a close eye on Lillard and Weber State and they have not failed to impress. Lillard averages 26.3 ppg and shoots the ball well. His solid all around play is the main reason Weber State have been so impressive this year, and should make an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Cody Zeller (Indiana) – Indiana would definitely not be where they are without Zeller. He is an outstanding freshman that coach what runs his offense through. Zeller is smart and dominant inside (check out his outstanding performance v Kentucky/Davis!), and will only get better.

Arnett Moultrie (Mississippi State) – An incredible presence who improves each and every game. The 6-11 junior averages 16.2 ppg and 11.3 rpg, dominating opponents with ease. Moultrie has definitely made Mississippi State a legitimate contender for the tournament.

Scott Machado (Iona) – Had to make mention of Machado. This guy leads the national in assists (10.1 per game) while also averaging 13.3 ppg. He is smart, versatile and a leader, and is responsible for giving Iona a very strong chance at tournament play.

There are others having an outstanding year such as Jeremy Lamb (UConn) and Perry Jones III (Baylor).

Players That Have Disappointed

Won’t go into too much detail here, but Terrence Jones (Kentucky) tops this list. Coach Calipari (quite possibly a prick) told Jones not to worry about returning to UK unless he wanted to be the best player in the game. After starting the season very strongly, Jones injured a finger (or maybe broke a finger nail) and seemingly sulked his way through a few games and has not been the same since (his last game was a lot better).

Andre Drummond (UConn) is a freshman, and I do not like to pick on freshman but he has definitely not lived up to all the hype that surrounded his signing with UConn. Plenty of time to develop, which will happen during Big East conference play, but for now, isn’t what was expected.

Austin Rivers (Duke) is another I have in this category. Again, a freshman (okay so I’m dissing two freshman here) who has plenty of time to develop. But with all the hype around him, PLUS his own opinion of himself (evident from the types of plays he TRIES to make), I am not much of a fan. Will probably still be a lottery pick however.

If I’ve left any out by all means comment, or tweet @wiggum7534 or @AusSportsGuys. Your thoughts and comments are valued.

NHL - 11 January 2012

San Jose visit Minnesota today and these two teams could not be in any more different form. The Sharks are surging whilst the Wild are letting their positive start go to waste, taking some big losses along the way too. Going to make a play at the puckline with this one and see if the sharks can get home by 2.

San Jose -1.5 @ $3.10 (sportingbet)

Also going to take Dallas at the ML against the Ducks who continue to be inconsistent at best. Dallas on the other hand are putting out a solid effort night after night at the moment and are getting the results to go with that.

Dallas @ $1.96 (sportsbet)

NCAA Basketball - 11 January 2012

Three plays.

Creighton -6 (v Northern Illinois) - 2 units

Ohio State -8.5 (at Illinois) - 3 units

Iowa +14 (at Michigan State)

NCAA Basketball - Half-Season Review - Part Two

Teams That Have Impressed

Syracuse. Yes, I know they’re the #1 team and were predicted to be, more or less, a top 5 team, but how good do they look? Plenty of time for the wheels to fall off (see last year) but not sure they will this year. The team is too deep and talented. I did tip them to win the Big East at the start of the season, and they’re definitely well on their way. Their outstanding zone defense, complimented by their 80+ PPG makes them a very formidable team.

Georgetown have definitely been better than expected. Always had them rated as good but some of their wins (such as at #4 Louisville, at #12 Alabama and over #8 Memphis in Hawaii) were outstanding. Not just because they won, but the way they won. And against teams who, at the time, were in good form. Expect this to continue. Do not be too worried about their loss at West Virginia.

Missouri may come back to the pack a little now that conference play is in full swing, but they have looked outstanding. Their 84ppg is 4^th best in the league, their 51% FG is 2^nd best in the league. There is a lot to like. One thinks, however, that when they face bigger stronger teams, they may come unstuck. Still, they’ve been quite the revelation.

Indiana are definitely on the right path. In such a balanced, and strong, conference, I had them pegged to finish second last. My how that has changed! Indiana have been playing some outstanding basketball, and are unbeaten at home. Their wins over Kentucky and Ohio State (both at home) have guaranteed them a trip to the NCAA Tourney.

I also think Ohio State have been pretty impressive, not just beating teams but smashing them. The wins over Duke and Florida were very impressive. Their loss at Indiana was not bad and the loss at Kansas was without Sullinger.

If I’ve left any out by all means comment, or tweet @wiggum7534 or @AusSportsGuys. Your thoughts and comments are valued.

Next article will be on the players. Who has been disappointing, and who has impressed?

BCS National Championship 2012 - 10 January 2012

BCS National Championship 
Superdome, New Orleans
Tuesday, 10 January 2012 12.30pm (Live ESPN)


#2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC) v #1 LSU (13-0, 8-0 SEC)

Betting

The market opened at the beginning of December with most shops either posting LSU -1 or listing the game at pickem. At the time of writing Alabama are at -2.

In a battle of two of the toughest defences in the nation, points will always be at a premium as evidenced when the two teams fought it out in Tuscaloosa in early November (LSU won in OT 9-6).

The total currently sits at around 40 with Sportingbet.

Notes

It was billed as the next "Game of the Century" when the top two undefeated programs in the nation fought it out on November 5. The then #1 ranked LSU Tigers were on the road in Tuscaloosa playing the #2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.

It took extra time to separate the two teams with LSU prevailing 9-6 in overtime in a game where neither team graced the endzone for a touchdown. Alabama fans would have left the game thinking what could have been with a number of missed field goal opportunities that could have changed the outcome of the game.

Fast forward two months and it would seem not much has changed...The undefeated #1 LSU Tigers will play the one-loss #2 Alabama Crimson Tide in a rematch that will decide the BCS National Championship.

Plenty of things have had to fall the way of the one loss Alabama Crimson Tide for them to make it into the BCS Title game. Oklahoma State, Boise State and Stanford all fell at the last hurdle in the quest for an undefeated season and a shot at the national title.

After a BCS Bowl season full of points I am looking forward to a defensive battle that will decide who win the 2012 BCS National Championship.

Players to watch

If you are in Australia and have ESPN, you could be forgiven for thinking LSU punter Brad Wing and Alabama defensive lineman Jesse Williams (Both Australians) are the only players taking part in the game tomorrow.

Seriously though, it is a great effort for both players being apart of such storied programs getting some quality airtime for this great sport. Brad Wing has had a tremendous year and will be remembered for dubious penalty being called as he was running a fake punt into the endzone.

A couple of the more widely known players are LSU defensive back Tyrann 'Honey Badger' Mathieu and Alabama tailback Trent Richardson (Check out Richardons sick run v Ole Miss below). Both players have had a great season and were rewarded as Heisman Trophy finalists.

Although Mathieu and Richardon get plenty of the attention (and deservedly so), keep an eye out for the following players that could turn the game -

Morris Claiborne (LSU) - Outstanding defensive back who is often forgotten with the Honey Badger getting all the media attention for the most part. Claiborne is a serious talent is marked as a potential top 5 pick in the upcoming 2012 NFL Draft.

Rueben Randle (LSU) - At an imposing 6'4 and 208 pounds he has caught 50 passes for 904 yards and 8 touchdowns.

LSU Defensive Line - Sam Montgomery, Michael Brockers and Barkevious Mingo will look to make life for Trent Richardon and AJ McCarron very difficult.

Dre Kirkpatrick (Ala) - Again on the defensive side of the ball Kirkpatrick is a defensive back who is looking at being a first round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. It will be his job matching up with Rueben Randle.

Mark Barron (Ala) - Playing at safety you will see him deliver some big hits on any LSU player with the ball. As with plenty of talent in this game a first round 2012 NFL Draft prospect.

Conclusion 

Make no mistake if you are hoping to see a high scoring end to end game you may leave disappointed. I can assure you however, that you will see two programs stacked with NFL talent going at it until the final whistle blows.

Remember some of the names you hear tomorrow, it won't be long until you are hearing them called on a Sunday afternoon..maybe even playing for the NFL team you follow.

@AusSportsGuys