So we are now only a couple of days away from the start of
the AFCON and the sports books all seem to have up some more odds for us to
look over. These future markets are brilliant for giving us some sort of
interest in each and every match throughout the tournament, although we will
still make a play on an individual match when we have a strong feel for the
game.
Anyway down to the business of my plays for the tournament.
As discussed in my preview I like the Ivory Coast to win the tournament with Senegal
as my value bet. My views haven’t changed much after a couple of wins each in warm
up matches, although the Ivory Coast were more convincing. The odds available
have changed slightly but I am definitely sticking with these selections.
Ivory Coast @ $2.62 (centrebet) for 3 units
Senegal @ $7.50 (sportingbet or tom waterhouse)
Sportsbet are also running a market for the winner of each
of the four groups. Group A has Senegal as the $1.40 favourite and they take on
tournament outsiders Zambia, Lybia and co-hosts Equatorial Guinea. Senegal will
qualify for the quarter-finals but their warm up games suggest to me they may
just work into the tournament slowly and so a $1.40 is too short for me.
In Group B the Ivory Coast are very short at $1.22 and they
will meet Angola, Sudan and Burkina Faso in another weak group. In this case I
think the $1.22 is entirely justified as they were comfortable in their warm
ups which to me was a little unexpected. I see them winning all three group
games and am therefore taking 5 units.
Ivory Coast to win Group B @ $1.22 (sportsbet) for 5 units
Group C is the most even group with Morocco listed as $2.40
favourite, Tunisia next at $2.88 and then the other hosts Gabon, at $3.75.
Niger are the outsider at $10. For me this group comes down to the second match
of the group which will be played between Morocco and Tunisia. The Tunisian
squad are largely based at home and have played together a lot, in fact Tunisia
won the African Nations Championship last year in which only home based players
are eligible. They have been in solid form in the lead up games and I really
expect them to settle a lot quicker than other squads. Morocco are the danger
and possibly the better team but I just think a hot start may be enough to get
Tunisia a win or a draw which should see them win the group. An injury to Issam
Jemaa means he will miss the group stage which is a massive blow but I still
think $2.88 is the value.
Tunisia to win Group C @ $2.88 (sportsbet)
The final group is another competitive one with Ghana, Mali
and Guinea all chances to progress and Botswana effectively making up the
numbers. I have Ghana winning the group ahead of Mali but with no real
conviction here. I am just not sold on Ghana yet, having not seen this makeup
of the national team play it is hard to judge and could the miraculous recovery
by Gyan leave him susceptible to a recurrence of his hamstring injury? I think
at this stage I will just look forward to watching their first game against Botswana
which surely they will win. As for Mali I like them to progress ahead of Guinea
but am not prepared to take them to win the group despite the $3.50 on offer.
Finally we move onto the top goalscorer market. As indicated
in my previous article, Demba Ba is my outright pick and $7 is currently on
offer. Despite strong competition from within his squad from Cisse and Sow, I
believe Ba started both warm up games which was the reassuarance I was looking
for. Group A is a relatively weak group so goals should be on offer and if
everything goes to plan Senegal will likely have an “easier” quarter-final
matchup against Angola, Burkina Faso or Angola. All signs point to a semi-final
appearance and the ideal six games.
Demba Ba @ $7 (sportsbet)
The next player I am taking for the top goalscorer is Salomon
Kalou. The Ivory Coast will be in the mix right til the end and again they have
a softer group stage where goals should be a bit easier to come by. Kalou
started and scored in both warm up games too which is always a good sign.
Drogba will get a lot of chances for the Ivory Coast but I just don’t know
about his form and the odds on offer for the veteran don’t reflect his form.
$17 for Kalou on the other hand is juicy.
Salomon Kalou @ $17 (sportingbet)
The final bet I am making is a bit of a value play on a Mali
striker Cheick Diabaté at $34. Whilst
Diabaté has not exactly been smashing them in for Bordeaux he does have a
fantastic international record and is a real beast up front for Mali. He does
start on the pitch and he will take their penalties which is always a plus. If
Mali can finish 2nd in their group then they will play the winner of
Group C in a quarter-final which is a real bonus because they avoid the other
winners likely to be Senegal, Ivory Coast and Ghana. So I think they are a live
semi-final chance. Sportsbet are offering each-way odds for this market paying
to four places at ¼ odds, so I might take 1 unit each way.
Cheick Diabaté @
$34 (sportsbet) for 1 unit each-way
That wraps it up,
seven plays for 14 units. If you like the look of all of those then go ahead
and ride them all with me, otherwise I encourage you to take the ones that make
the most sense to you. I do think there is plenty of value there and hopefully
we will have some luck. I will likely share my thoughts on some individual
games throughout the tournament so stay tuned and please share your thoughts
and comments too. Beyond that, the first games are Sunday morning so enjoy the
show.
@mal68au
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