Tuesday 28 June 2011

AFL Round 15 - Early Lean

AussieSportsGuys have taken two early plays in the AFL Round 15.

Richmond +25.5
Collingwood -22.5

After going 1-2 last weekend we are looking for a bounce back week.

@AusSportsGuys

Early Mail - Canterbury 29 June 2011

We have some Early Mail for Canterbury racing tomorrow.

Canterbury
Race 1
Gliding

The daughter of Flying Spur has drawn a tough barrier but should be a good each-way bet.

@wiggum7534

NCAA Football Futures

The internet news wires were buzzing that former NC State QB Russell Wilson would transfer to the Wisconsin Badgers this morning.

Wilson played 3 seasons with the Wolfpack and completed 308 of 527 pass attempts for 3563 yards. He also had solid TD/Int ratio with 28 Td's and 14 Int.

The Badgers who finished last season with a 10-2 record (Ranked 7th) were again in the hunt for the Big 10 title this year.

With that knowledge AussieSportsGuys took the $41 available in the anticipation that Wilson would commit to challenging for the starting role over the coming months.

News broke shortly after that Wilson would not play any further part in the 2011 baseball season (He was drafted by the Colorado Rockies) and would focus on being the number one man for Wisconsin in the hope of being drafted into the NFL.

Wisconsin has a favourable schedule and host Nebraska on 1 October 2010 in a game that could enter either team into the discussion of who will fight it out for the 2011/12 BSC National Championship.

Wisconsin are now around $29

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Friday 24 June 2011

A View From The Track - 24 June 2011

As seen earlier this week AussieSportsGuys is all over Beaded in the Tatt's Tiara at Eagle Farm this weekend.

We took the fixed odds on opening and the money has keep coming with it now as short as $1.95.

If you follow our guy @wiggum7534 on Twitter you would have seen his push for Essington yesterday at Rockhampton and another special today in Squamosa.

We tread carefully when backing the hot pots but you should be in the queue ready to collect.

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Wednesday 22 June 2011

Football Futures (Wiggum7534)

Did you realise it is less than a week until the first qualifying round of the Champions’ League commences? Incredible.

With that, I raise a few points for consideration heading into the new season (with a multi for good measure).

Scottish Premier League

Rangers won their third straight SPL title last May in one of the most incredible seasons of Scottish football. Walter Smith has retired as Rangers manager, paving the way for ‘Gers legend Ally McCoist. However, given McCoist’s inexperience (though he has been Walter’s #2) I expect Celtic to comfortably win the SPL this coming season. Odds of $1.75 aren’t unreasonable as Celtic were desperately unlucky not to win it last season. I expect them to take advantage over the change at Rangers (including an ownership change which appears to have caused some unrest at the club). In addition, Celtic’s squad is far deeper than Rangers and seemingly have a higher budget to bring in new talent if needed.

Spanish La Liga

Barcelona are, without doubt, the best team in the world. There is no argument. However, their recently publicised debt (some 450 million Euros) has caused some concern within the club at their ability to hang onto some of their stars. Despite this, they are still $1.52 favourites to win La Liga again.

Their only real opposition, again, will be Real Madrid ($2.50). Real came close last year but were unable to match Barca’s brilliant consistency. They did, however, provide for some of the greatest El Classico’s of all-time. If Real are going to win La Liga…nup, they can’t do it.

Italian Serie A

AC Milan won their 18th Serie A title last season, their first since 2003-04. They did so mainly by being one of very few teams not to self-destruct over the course of the year. At $2.25 they are decent odds to repeat as champions. However, I favour Inter Milan ($2.30).

Inter started last season having appointed new coach Rafa Benitez. While it was obvious early that Benitez offered a very exciting attacking style of football (not seen in Serie A since the late 80s), they did not achieve great results which upset fans and many of the players. Benitez was sacked in December and, on Christmas Eve, former Milan manager and favourite Leonardo took over. Leonardo’s impact was immediate as Inter rolled off 4 wins in a row. Under Leonardo, Inter’s record was a league best 17 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses.

I am convinced he will continue to have the impact he has had, and Inter will prevail as champions.

German Bundesliga

Am taking Borussia Dortmund to repeat as champions and odds of $5.50 is juicy. While Bayern ($1.60) will be at full strength (and with a new manager who will surely get the best out of them), I do not treat Dortmund’s win last season as a fluke. They are a very young side (their oldest regular squad member is 27) with oodles of talent. The $5.50 on offer is way overs, while Bayern’s odds are way unders.

English Premier League

Have taken the slightly left field selection here of Liverpool. $12 is big odds and Liverpool did have the best record in the EPL since the first of January (coincidentally with Kenny Dalglish took over as manager). While it is obviously a very big ask to have them overhaul Manchester United or Chelsea (the other two I figure to fight it out), Kenny has all of the players and fans believing he can do this. The return of Steven Gerrard, continually injured, will be a monsterous boost to the lads from Merseyside. Liverpool have promised much for the last 10 years and haven’t really delivered (though a Champions League Cup and UEFA Cup are nothing to be sneezed at!). Perhaps that’s why odds of $12 are floating about.

Still, I say this is overs and worth the plunge!

If you were to multi all of these selections, you would end up with juicy odds of just over $400 for $1 bet. #geton

Follow me on twitter @wiggum7534 and the team @AusSportsGuys

Tuesday 21 June 2011

AFL Against the Spread Round 13

Another round and the gap between top and bottom increases. Carlton comfortably accounted for Sydney on the weekend who most are tipping will be just outside the top four at the end of the year.

Geelong and Hawthorn also covered. Geelong are a remarkable 10-2 ATS.

After going 6-1 over the last two rounds AussieSportsGuys are certainly enjoying the downtime until the return of NCAA Football and Basketball.

Below is the ladder after Round 13 with each team ATS.

Horse Racing - Tattersall's Tiara Group 1 Eagle Farm Saturday

Our racing man who is in hot form over the past couple of weeks @wiggum7534 is ready to load up on Beaded this weekend.

Beaded will run in the Group 1 Tattersall's Tiara at Group 1 level this Saturday at Eagle Farm.

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Sunday 19 June 2011

AFL - Are the Bookmakers getting it wrong?

Check out the ladder before this weekends game and the teams record ATS. Geelong and Hawthorn covering already. Carlton on the way. The bookies are thinking the competition is a bit closer than it is. Gap as large as the Grand Canyon between the top 4 and the rest.


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Saturday 18 June 2011

AFL Round 13

We have launched a late play after coming out 1 from 2 today with Hawthorn and Essendon.

Play 1 -
Richmond -5.5 @ $1.92

Play 2 -
Richmond Moneyline @ $1.69

Good Luck

Follow us on twitter @AusSportsGuys

Friday 17 June 2011

The Early Mail (Wiggum7534)

Our man @Wiggum7534 was on fire last weekend.

Early Mail -

Sydney
Race 5
No 12 - Wazn

Follow the team @AusSportsGuys

Thursday 16 June 2011

AFL Round 13 Preview

AFL Round 13

After a good week in Round 12 with our early leans of West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond all covering we look ahead.

Hawthorn v Gold Coast:

The young Suns will face a massive test against a physically tough Hawthorn team when they travel to Tasmania for Saturdays clash.

The Hawks lose Roughead, Guerra and Renouf but gain Ladsen and Hale. Gold Coast coming off a big loss to North Melbourne lose promising stars Zac Smith and David Swallow. The loss of Smith cannot be underestimated.

With plenty of trouble on the flight down I cannot see them being able to match up with the Hawks.

The line has seemingly moved in the Suns favour with it currently at -67.5 for the Hawks.

We have taken the Hawks at -67.5

Essendon v North Melbourne:

The Bombers appear on the slide, and the Kangaroos on the rise. However I think the recent results have skewed the line a touch and I think Essendon are value at -7.5.

Some very handy players return for the Bombers with Hocking, Stanton, Bellchambers and Tayte Pears.

We are on Essendon at -7.5

Melbourne v Fremantle:

Very dangerous game punting wise with the up and down Melbourne side tough to catch. The Demons come off a big loss against the yard stick in the competition in Collingwood. Some big ins will sure up the side with Dunn, Garland and Pettard.

On the flip side Fremantle have two massive outs that join Sandilands on the outer. David Mundy and Hayden Ballantyne will be missing for a team that historically struggles at the MCG.

We are on Melbourne bouncing back (again) at -2.5

Our early plays for Round 13 - Haw -67.5 / Ess -7.5 / Melb -2.5

On twitter @AusSportsGuys

AFL Against the Spread Round 12 (JohnAnthonyOZ)

Round 12 done and dusted.

Suprise Suprise Collingwood cover...again.

More teams continue to emerge as betting value ATS week after week.

Winning Teams ATS:

Collingwood 9-2
Geelong 9-2
Hawthorn 7-4
North Melbourne 7-4
Richmond 7-4
West Coast 7-4

Losing Teams ATS:

Gold Coast 3-7
Melbourne 3-8
Port Adelaide 2-9
St Kilda 4-7
Western Bulldogs 4-7
Fremantle 4-7

Certainly plenty of money making teams!!!

On twitter @AusSportsGuys

Wednesday 15 June 2011

'19-1' (Mal68au)

On a Thursday night at the end of March, two and a half months ago, Vancouver won what may prove to be one of the most important trophies in their history. The Presidents Trophy. Awarded to the team who finishes the regular season with the best record, guaranteeing that team home ice for as long as they remain alive in the playoffs. Vancouver clinched it with four games to spare.

Whilst every team aims to win this, it is not do or die, at least not normally. However this year, in this series it is Vancouvers only hope. Having been outscored a combined 17-3 in the three games in Boston this series would be all over if the decider was back there. On neutral ice, I would have no hesitation tipping the Bruins to win this game. Thomas is on fire, they continue to find scoring from all lines, they have shut down the Sedins and Kesler and most importantly they are in their heads. You can just see it in the way the Canucks play that they are focussed on why Marchand or Bergeron didn't get called instead of getting the puck. But its not being played in Boston or on neutral ice, its being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver and that makes one hell of a difference.

Normally I don't think stats mean much but let me throw a few at you. Vancouver went 27-9-5 at home this season, then 10-3 this playoff year including 3-0 this series. Of the last three stanley cup finals, the home teams have now gone 17-2. And the biggest stat of all is the 19-1, that is, in the last 20 final series in the NHL/NBA/MLB to go to game 7, only one away team has got the W and believe me they were no ordinary team.

So what does all this mean??? It means that whilst Boston are playing amazingly well they have a mountain to climb if they are going to get the job done. I really do think they have the mental edge and that Luongo could fall apart with an early goal. BUT, I just can't ignore the 19-1. That is just so overwhelming that there has to be something behind that. So from a pure tipping point of view I will stick with my original series winner of Vancouver.

From a punting point of view I could understand if you wanted to get on Boston at $2.25 given how tough I think this game is to pick, possibly some value there #fencesitmuch. However the real value is in doubling the result into under 5.5 goals. Game 7's tend to be tight and we have seen far fewer goals scored north of the border in this series. Plus I do have a little theory about empty netters being less likely in this game.

@Mal68au

Follow us on twitter @AusSportsGuys

Lord Stanley's Cup

82 Regular season games
3 Best of seven series
2 Teams left standing
1 Lord Stanley Cup

After 6 brutal and pulsating games the Boston Bruins head back to Vancouver and face off against the Canucks in an all or nothing Game 7 for the ultimate prize.

Vancouver came into the playoffs with the best record in the NHL and taking home the Presidents' Trophy for the first time. However a quest to win the franchises first Stanley Cup has eluded the team since they joined the league in 1970 is the only piece of silverware they truly cherish.

With stars such as the Sedin twins, Ryan Kessler and Roberto Luongo between the pipes everything was leaning towards the Canucks prevailing over the upstart Boston Bruins.

Daniel Sedin was the league leader in points with 104 and his brother not far behind in 4th with 94 points. Ryan Kessler continued his ascension into the top players in the league and finished 5th in the league with 41 goals. Could they prove the doubters wrong by dominating when it matters..in the postseason.

The challenger has risen from a tight affair in the Eastern Conference with only 4 points separating the top 5 teams in the league standings after 82 games in the regular season.

Lead by captain Zdeno Chara the imposing 6'9, 255lbs defender epitomizes the Bruins game style being tough and uncompromising. Behind him in net is the leagues best goaltender Tim Thomas who finished the season with a remarkable 2.00GAA and .938 save %.

The best of seven series was all that was left between them and having there name inscribed onto the famous Cup.

After Game 1 and 2 in Vancouver you would be a brave man in thinking the Bruins would be able to fight back after two heart breaking losses on the road. The Canucks took the opener after scoring the games only goal with only 18.5 seconds left and even more crushing scoring the game winner in OT after only 11 seconds.

Some home cooking and the Boston faithful certainly flipped the series on its head. Game 3 reminded everyone of that Boston grit and determination that made it clear they were not just making up the numbers. It would also begin the mental roller coaster for Canuck goaltender Roberto Luongo with Boston winning 8-1 and 4-0 that would even the series at 2-2.

With the focus on Luongo and his fragile mental state after being benched in Game 4 it was not an ideal way to go into Game 5 back in Vancouver. The home ice advantage continued on with Luongo bringing his A game and helping the Canucks take a pivotal 3-2 lead in the series after winning the game 1-0.

The Bruins headed home for Game 6 holding out hope they could cross the border for one more time. In the space of 4 minutes and 14 seconds in the first period, Roberto Luongo was simply hoping he didn't get left behind by the team bus as he was benched again after the Bruins took a 4-0 lead. With the game essentially over the Bruins took at 5-2 victory and were looking forward to seeing Roberto back in Vancouver.

Game 7 is now upon us with the Vancouver Canucks one win away from lifting Lord Stanley's Cup, one win away from redemption for Luongo, one win away from the Sedin twins shaking the tag of front runners and being able to the job when it really matters.

For Boston the unthinkable, a series clinching victory on the road against the leagues most dominating team during the regular season. With that passion and determination that seems to be ingrained in all the Boston professional teams, lead by the warrior Chara I certainly expect the game to go down to the wire.

In a series of bad blood that was highlighted when Vancouver player Nathan Horton was levelled by a late hit in Game 3 that would end his season, it is only right that we arrive at this point.

The ingredients are available for the making of an instant ESPN Classic. Will the Sedin twins stand up when it matters, Will Tim Thomas keep his Bruins in the game until the very end and which Roberto Luongo will turn up for the Canucks.

The Boston Bruins will carry my support (and $$$$) on the road as underdog. The money has come for them as the Canucks opened at -170 but are now into -150 at the moneyline.

I am expecting a tight low scoring affair and as such taken the total game score under 5. I have also had some interest on the Bruins winning 2-1 and 3-1.

When it is all said and done only one thing will be for sure, nothing will be left on the ice.

Hope you enjoy the game.

@JohnAnthonyOZ

Follow us on twitter @AusSportsGuys

Sunday 12 June 2011

NBA Finals - Game 6: On the Brink (Wiggum7534)

NBA Finals – Game 6: On the Brink



Miami heads home for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on the brink of elimination. The Heat have had a chance in winning all 5 games of this series, yet have faltered in crunch time. Dwyane Wade has had little support from LeBron James, who made the move to South Beach to win a title. LeBron? THIS IS YOUR CHANCE! THIS IS WHY YOU MOVED TO MIAMI! HELLO?

LeBron has scored a total of 2 points in the 4th quarter of Games 2-5. Not exactly the kind of numbers one would expect from a ‘superstar’. Superstars are at their best in crunch-time - when the stakes are at their highest. There is no higher stakes than the chance to compete for an NBA Championship.

We’ve seen brilliant performances in the Finals that have defined players’ careers. Magic (1980), Bird (1986), MJ (1991-93, 96-98), Olajuwon (1994).

Prior to Olajuwon’s title in 1994, he never truly was regarded as a great player – just a very good one, who was mentioned in the same breath has David Robinson and Patrick Ewing (other very good centres of his era). But Olajuwon’s complete domination of Ewing on the biggest stage then made us think of him in a different way. He was a champion.

LeBron still has this chance. The series is not yet over.

As we head into Game 6, let’s have a look at teams (and performances) that have been down 3-2 coming home, but ended up winning the title:



1988 – Los Angeles Lakers v Detroit

The Lakers were convincingly smashed in games 4 and 5 in Detroit, and many wondered whether this was the end of the Lakers dynasty. The upstart Pistons had beaten out Boston in the East Finals, and now looked like finishing off the job with victory over the Lakers. In one of the greatest finals series of all time (definitely top 5, sorry Mr Hollinger) the Lakers survived one of the greatest playoff performances (Isiah Thomas 43 pts, badly sprained ankle) to tie the series (103-102 Lakers). Magic led the way for the Lakers with 22 pts, 19 ast while James Worthy had 28 pts, 9 rebs – the two big guns firing.

The Lakers then finished off business in another fantastic game, holding off the Pistons 108-105. Worthy has his first career triple double (36 pts, 16 reb, 10 ast), again rising to the big occasion (earning the nickname Big Game James). Magic again solid (19 pts, 14 ast). The Pistons had a last second chance to tie the game, but the fans stormed the court with 2 seconds on the clock and…we’ll never know.

In any case, the huge performances from Magic and Worthy were the reason the Lakers were able to secure the title.



1994 – Houston v New York

The Knicks had a 3-2 series lead as the series shifted back to Houston. The Knicks had the momentum winning the last two games, and it appeared as though Patrick Ewing had FINALLY woken up in the series. However, Hakeem OIajuwon would again dominate Ewing (forcing him to shoot 30%) and blocked John Starks last second shot to lead the Rockets to victory. Olajuwon would finish with 30 pts, 10 reb and 4 blk.

Game 7 and the Rockets would prevail as Olajuwon again dominated Ewing, finishing with a near triple double (25 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 3 blk). Olajuwon’s big plays and domination of Ewing resulted in him being awarded the Finals MVP.

2010 – L.A Lakers v Boston

Last year the Lakers rallied from 3-2 down to beat the Celtics in a memorable game 7 at the Staples Center. Kobe’s strong performance in Game 6 (coupled with good performances from Ron Artest and Pau Gasol) forced a game 7.

The Lakers ended up falling over the line in game 7 as both teams did their best to throw the game away. Kobe (23 pts, 15 reb) shot only 25% for the game (6/24 FG). Gasol came up big (19 pts, 18 reb) as the Lakers repeated and defeated their nemesis.



This is not beyond Miami – but for the Miami to win games 6 and 7, they are going to require a lot more from LeBron. If LeBron is the superstar we all believe he is, there are no excuses - he must have stellar performances in the next two games. That’s what superstars do. That’s what truly great players do.

They lift regardless of health or mental state. They perform because they find a way to triumph against adversity. I know this is LeBron’s first finals series, and I could understand it if Miami were facing one of the great teams, but I’m not sure Dallas is that. They are good, and a worthy finalist, but a great team? A team that should force LeBron into some of the worst crunch-time performances of his life? No chance.

Don’t second guess it. These games will define LeBron’s place in the game. He will be remembered for what happens in these next two games.

As a Miami fan, I am not massively confident but I know Wade will put them in position to have their chance at winning. If only the ‘King’ could prove he is in fact that, once more.


From @wiggum7534
Follow the team at @AusSportsGuys

Saturday 11 June 2011

Horse Racing Saturday 11 June 2011

Todays mail from @Wiggum7534 -

Sydney Race 4 - Squamosa
Melbourne Race 6 - Unanimously
Brisbane Race 4 - Glass Harmonium

Lay of the Day
Brisbane Race 5 Hot Snitzel

Good Luck

Follow the team @AusSportsGuys

Friday 10 June 2011

Horse Racing - Early Mail Sydney Race 4

Some further Early Mail from @wiggum7534

Sydney
Race 4
No 8 Squamosa
Currently around $2.70 on fixed odds

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Thursday 9 June 2011

Horse Racing Saturday

Our man @wiggum7534 has some early mail at Eagle Farm on Saturday. He is still enjoying the spoils from a big Doomben 10,000 day.

Race 3
No 11 - Willy Jimmy

Good Luck

Follow the team on twitter @AusSportsGuys

Wednesday 8 June 2011

NHL Stanley Cup Game 4 Vancouver v Boston

Once the Vancouver Canucks gave up 4 quick goals in the 2nd period in Game 3 in Boston the cue was pretty quickly placed in the rack with a view of looking ahead to Game 4. The result 8-1 does not concern as the Canucks are flat out a star studded team and should bounce back.

After pushing with our play of +3 on the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals we are back in action taking Vancouver at the money line at $2.05.

A win in game 4 by the Canucks should allow them to close out the series at home and cash in @mal68au listed play with Vancouver winning the series in 5 games (As noted in the NHL Stanley Cup Preview).

Good Luck

We we on twitter @AusSportsGuys

NBA Finals Game 4 Miami v Dallas

Game 4 is upon us and as outlined by @wiggum7534 this is the game that can become an instant ESPN Classic.

Our Basketball man @wiggum7534 is all over Miami +3 today and even a smaller bet on Miami at the Money line.

Good luck.

Follow on twitter @wiggum7534

Tuesday 7 June 2011

Now On Twitter

AussieSportsGuys now has a twitter account @AusSportsGuys

Also follow the team -

@wiggum7534
@Mal68Au
@The_A_Mac
@JohnAnthonyOZ

Game 4 - The Series' Classic (Wiggum7534)

Game 4 – The Series’ Classic

The Miami Heat have taken a 2-1 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks. The Heat have shown, at times, how incredibly good they can be when they have their game going. They have also shown, at times, how incredibly ordinary they can be when it is not.

As we head into Game 4 (Wednesday morning 11am AEST), one wonders whether we are set for yet another classic Game 4 that the NBA Finals has so consistently provided over the years. Over the past 30 years, the NBA Finals has produced some sensational game 4 classics such as:

1984 – Boston at L.A Lakers
A game after calling his team mates sissies, Larry Bird and the Celtics come out hard against the Lakers, eventually winning the game in double overtime. This game famous for so many reasons including Bird’s 29 pts, 21 reb performance, Magic’s mental meltdown, Cedric Maxwell symbolizing James Worthy’s choking at the foul line to name a few. It is perhaps most famous for Kevin McHale’s clothesline of Kurt Rambis that nearly resulted in an all-in brawl. Definitely one of the best games of all-time.

1985 – Boston at L.A Lakers
A rematch of 1984, the Lakers and Celtics played another classic. The first year of the 2-3-2 format, Lakers took a 2-1 lead heading into the game. But Larry Bird and the Celtics would again prevail, this time thanks to Dennis Johnson’s buzzer beater from the top of the key.

1987 – L.A Lakers at Boston
Another incredible game between these two champion teams. The Celtics led by 16 in the 3rd, only for the Lakers to mount an incredible comeback. This time, Magic would prevail with his gorgeous running skyhook that put the Lakers up for good. Bird had one more chance to win it, but it missed.

1993 – Phoenix at Chicago
Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley put in incredible performances in game 4 as the Bulls took a 3-1 series lead. MJ finished with 55 pts while Sir Charles put up 32 pts, 12 reb, 10 ast for the Suns.

2000 – L.A Lakers at Indiana
An overtime classic that elevated Kobe Bryant to superstar status following his three huge shots in overtime. Shaq fouled out in overtime, leaving it to Kobe to carry the Lakers to victory.

2008 – Boston at L.A Lakers
After jumping out to a 35-14 lead after the 1st, the Lakers led by as many as 24 points. However the new look Celtics would not be denied, mounting the largest comeback in the finals since 1971. An incredible game that gave the Celtics a 3-1 series lead.

So back to 2011 and given the two teams involved, I’m set for just about anything. I would be happy with a comfortable win for the Heat, and a 3-1 series lead, but would quite happily settle for a triple-OT classic!

Monday 6 June 2011

AFL Against the Spread Round 11 (JohnAnthonyOZ)

Well another round of AFL down and another week where Collingwood and Geelong cover the spread. Also another week where Port Adelaide don't cover the spread....

Collingwood 8-2
Geelong 9-1
Port Adelaide 2-9
Fremantle 3-7
St Kilda 3-7
Melbourne 3-7
Gold Coast 3-6

All teams offer a nice profit if you have been on or against all year.

Early lines for Round 12

St Kilda -12.5 Western Bulldogs +12.5
Adelaide +9.5 West Coast -9.5
Gold Coast +22.5 North Melbourne -22.5
Geelong -15.5 Hawthorn +15.5
Carlton -48.5 Brisbane +48.5
Sydney -24.5 Richmond +24.5
Fremantle -4.5 Essendon +4.5
Melbourne +34.5 Collingwood -34.5

It is a now a well known fact that teams coming off the bye are struggling big time. But as noted by one of the corporate bookmakers today they will now adjust the price accordingly.

Will some value appear for those teams coming off the bye? Especially at the line?

I will be having a little saver on the Tigers at +24.5. West Coast at -9.5 for mine is not enough against a terrible Adelaide team, even at home I am not sure that is enough.

The Gold Coast are a young team who will be up and down, after a gallant performance against the Eagles in Perth and the trip back, I would expect North Melbourne who are hitting some reasonable form to get the chocolates this week and I like the -22.5.

Early leans - Rich +24.5 / West Coast -9.5 / North Melbourne -22.5

Follow me on twitter @JohnAnthonyOZ

Hope you find a winner.

Bring back the BIG V? (Mal68au)

After seeing the recent game one of the State of Origin, or at least hearing of its success (yes my new digs still only gets channel 10) I am convinced it’s time for the AFL to bring it back full time. If our brethren to the north can make it work, and they do, then why can’t we??? We do have the better game and fans after all (yes I do expect a little backlash but just calling it as I see it).

So how has the NRL made it work whilst the once great VFL/AFL State of Origin games have disappeared? I think it has a lot to do with the passion and hatred shared between the two sets of fans. It means absolutely EVERYTHING to them and subsequently it means absolutely EVERYTHING to the players. I mean they have to play mid-week and the back-up for their club on the weekend and they just don’t care. It means that much. Whereas the AFL players pull out left right and centre so they are right to play in a club game the week after that means very little. There is just no passion for the players which I think can be traced back through the fans, right back to the AFL itself.

The heart of the problem, as often is the case, is damn political correctness. Whoever’s stupid idea it was to introduce the “All Stars” and the like, ruined State of Origin. How can fans get passionate about teams like that?
The only solution now is to borrow from the NRL template and have the same two teams play every year to build up a rivalry. Now I know that the State of Origin idea was effectively created by Western Australia, but I am sorry WA, we simply do not hate you enough. South Australia on the other hand, well…

So bring back the Big V vs the Croweaters and let everyone else please themselves, screw political correctness Mr Demetriou.

But what about the fixturing I here you say? When do we fit it in? Well because of the extra team this year we have had 24 rounds with every team having two byes. With GWS joining next year we can revert back to 22 rounds, have the State of Origin weekend off at about round 8 and then a split round at about round 18 in the lead up to the finals. It is perfect timing. But the most important part of this grand plan, would be to commit to this game for at least 10 years, that way the fans and then the players know it’s not mickey mouse stuff and could invest emotionally like their NRL counterparts.

With this formula the passion, hatred and just brilliant spectacles are bound to return. Hell if we want to fast track all of this why don’t we just get rid of political correctness altogether for that weekend and give the match review panel a spell #biffo

What are your thoughts?

Follow me on twitter @mal68au

Sunday 5 June 2011

A view on Sepp (Mal68au)

Joesph Blatter. Commonly known as Sepp, even more commonly known as a lying corrupt blight on the world game. Now when Sepp was elected again this past week for another term as president of FIFA I didn’t bat an eyelid. I mean he was running unopposed. But when I heard on the way home from work that the FFA had voted for him I nearly ran off the road. How could we support the bloke and the regime that basically screwed us out of any legitimate shot at hosting the world cup?

It came to light that there were “improper payments” in awarding the world cup to Qatar for 2022 and what does big Sepp do? Take the cup off them or call for a re-vote? No. He suspends the Qatari delegate who just happens to be the one guy running against Sepp in the elections. Oh how convenient.

But as I hinted, this is nothing but the norm for FIFA and I was not surprised. But as far as the FFA go I was not only surprised, I was angry. The English FA abstained from voting to make a stand and say enough is enough. Sixteen other federations abstained also and yet Ben Buckley and the FAA are still sucking up to FIFA. What are they afraid of? Sure they will likely make us pay in some form or another down the track but if we’re honest they don’t exactly do us many favours anyway. We’re Australians and we’d rather stand up for what is right. We ran a fair race to get the world cup and were beaten by a country that appears to have paid off top officials. Surely we should have made a stand against this, the Australian fans deserve at least that much.

So with all this in mind maybe it is time for some changes at the FFA. Although on second thoughts, I am likely not the best person to listen to, due to my growing frustration with the game in general. My beloved Newcastle United look destined for years of mid table mediocrity, it doesn’t look like the Melbourne Heart are taking me to Asia anytime soon and now the FFA have shown they are little more than one of FIFA’s b@#ches. All of this adds up to one very disillusioned fan of the round ball game.

Screw it all, I’m off to watch some Faustino Asprilla highlights on youtube over a scotch or ten.


Follow me on twitter @Mal68au


Cheers

Wednesday 1 June 2011

Passing the Buck (The_A_Mac)

Passing the Buck

Last Friday 27 May 2011, Senator Stephen Conroy announced plans that Federal and State governments across Australia will outlaw the advertising of live sport betting odds by broadcasters and at event venues by June 2012. Senator Conroy believes that "there's an insidious culture developing that is targeting the young as they are watching sporting events". This may be true, but will the cost of having multiple levels of government legislate the advertising of betting odds really alter this culture? I think not, it (gambling) is inherent in Australia's society. Whether it was in the goldfields of Ballarat where miners would gamble by panning without a license, or diggers on the shores of Gallipoli playing two-up in the quieter moments, or Victorians 'frocking up' and 'having a punt' on one of their most cherished public holidays on that first Tuesday in November.

Politicians must understand, whether you are watching the game at home, the pub or at the ground, viewers can remotely access these odds from an array of mobile devices. Perhaps more importantly they can place a bet without leaving their seat. So in an ever changing world, with new technologies developing at a rate defined by Moore's Law, legislation will never be the answer to this 'apparent' issue.

Knowing this politicians must asked themselves, what is the real issue here? Is it that government feels they have skirted the issue of limiting the exposure of gambling to Australia's youth, and failed to target the social issues surrounding problem gambling. Or are they more concerned about the level of revenue that football codes (AFL, NRL etc) and television networks receive from advertising these live odds. Should the latter be solely the case, the word hypocrisy may spring to mind given the revenue government receives from pokies.

Yes these leagues and they're broadcasters have a level or social responsibility, and there is no question that they are already aware of the consequences such advertising has on revenue. When questioned about the amount of revenue that passes through the hands of bookies during the course of a season AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou refused to comment. Surely a figure that would have been to hand during the recent negotiations for the TV broadcasters. However to Mr Demetriou's credit when asked if the AFL would act prematurely to the legislation, he answered in the affirmative.

Ultimately this may be a small step in limiting the exposure the youth has to gambling, but it won't even cause a ripple in the pool of money wagered on sporting matches. What really bothers me however is that before we (the nation) go down a path of costly legislative change, shouldn't the politicians have asked a couple of simple questions? How is this going to stop people receiving updates and placing bets on their mobile devices during matches, and couldn't we just ask these codes to stop advertising live odds. At the end of the day it may be easier for government to pass the buck, rather than really address the underlying social issues surrounding problem gambling.

The_A_Mac

Follow on twitter @The_A_Mac

*Note The_A_Mac is the fourth member of the AussieSportsGuys team.