'19-1' (Mal68au)

On a Thursday night at the end of March, two and a half months ago, Vancouver won what may prove to be one of the most important trophies in their history. The Presidents Trophy. Awarded to the team who finishes the regular season with the best record, guaranteeing that team home ice for as long as they remain alive in the playoffs. Vancouver clinched it with four games to spare.

Whilst every team aims to win this, it is not do or die, at least not normally. However this year, in this series it is Vancouvers only hope. Having been outscored a combined 17-3 in the three games in Boston this series would be all over if the decider was back there. On neutral ice, I would have no hesitation tipping the Bruins to win this game. Thomas is on fire, they continue to find scoring from all lines, they have shut down the Sedins and Kesler and most importantly they are in their heads. You can just see it in the way the Canucks play that they are focussed on why Marchand or Bergeron didn't get called instead of getting the puck. But its not being played in Boston or on neutral ice, its being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver and that makes one hell of a difference.

Normally I don't think stats mean much but let me throw a few at you. Vancouver went 27-9-5 at home this season, then 10-3 this playoff year including 3-0 this series. Of the last three stanley cup finals, the home teams have now gone 17-2. And the biggest stat of all is the 19-1, that is, in the last 20 final series in the NHL/NBA/MLB to go to game 7, only one away team has got the W and believe me they were no ordinary team.

So what does all this mean??? It means that whilst Boston are playing amazingly well they have a mountain to climb if they are going to get the job done. I really do think they have the mental edge and that Luongo could fall apart with an early goal. BUT, I just can't ignore the 19-1. That is just so overwhelming that there has to be something behind that. So from a pure tipping point of view I will stick with my original series winner of Vancouver.

From a punting point of view I could understand if you wanted to get on Boston at $2.25 given how tough I think this game is to pick, possibly some value there #fencesitmuch. However the real value is in doubling the result into under 5.5 goals. Game 7's tend to be tight and we have seen far fewer goals scored north of the border in this series. Plus I do have a little theory about empty netters being less likely in this game.

@Mal68au

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