Friday 7 October 2011

NHL Preview

Hockey fans rejoice, the NHL season is upon us again. So here are a couple of bold and some not so bold predictions for the long season ahead.

• Vancouver a lock to finish on top of the Western Conference due to the poor Northwest Division rivals but they will not make it through to the cup final again. Washington will probably finish on top the East for the same reasons.

• Flyers will finish 7th in the East at best and may even miss the playoffs. All this talk of them challenging for the cup is just rubbish, having traded away Carter, Richards and even losing Leino they really need some more offensive punch. Sure they got Jagr but he is nearly 40 years old and he has played in Russia for the last three seasons where he has played 50 game seasons not 80 game seasons. This is a guy who should be complimenting your offense not someone you build your offense around. Look for them to fade in the new year and one or two injuries and they may well miss the playoffs completely.

• Evgeni Malkin will not win the Art Ross or the Hart trophies this year, anyone suggesting this is just being disrespectful to the likes of Perry, Ovechkin, Toews, Sedin’s and Stamkos. Sure he has won the Art Ross before and is capable of doing it again but he did blow out his ACL and MCL only 9 months ago and that usually takes about a season to reach previous levels again. He has only played a few pre-season games, some pretty impressive pre-season games for sure but are we getting carried away just a little? He will dominate and will have a great season but he will not win either of these trophies this year

• Pacific Division is set to be the toughest division in the league by far. The Ducks have all sorts of talent and Hiller (if healthy) makes them tough to beat. The Coyotes continue to lose talent but can develop it just as quick and Tippett can work miracles from the bench. Then you have the big improvers in the conference in the Kings. They have continued to develop nicely from within but have made a huge addition in the form of Mike Richards and a handy one in Simon Gagne. They will go deep in the playoffs. They won’t however win the division. The Sharks look very good and they will win it again.

• Brendan Shanahan is going to be super busy this year. The new tougher rules and harsher penalties are needed but it is just going to take players at least a year to change lifelong habits. With 1230 regular season games he will have his work cut out ensuring consistency with all the bans he hands out.

• The freak that is Teemu Selanne will get the 59 points required to pass Jari Kurri on the all-time leading point scoring list as the leading Finnish player in the History of the NHL. Selanne is 41 years old and has 1340 points and he is still fun to watch. He will no doubt be treated like a returning hero when he gets the chance to return to Winnipeg to play against the Jets this season where he scored 86 goals and 132 points in his first season in the NHL.

• And finally Pittsburgh will win the Stanley Cup. A month or so ago there were a number of questions around the Penguins going into this season. Will Malkin be any good? Will Crosby return at all? Will the players who lifted last year maintain that level? Now a month later it is clear only one question remains, that is when will Crosby return? Not if, but when. Malkin is flying, the rest of the team is balanced and Crosby is looking set to return within a month. Without Crosby this Pittsburgh team would be amongst the top four teams challenging for the cup, with him they are outright favourite. This is a squad that is settled, deep and most importantly all the key players have had time to gel and learn the system.
 
Division Winners
Division
Predicted Winner
Suggested bet (all odds from Sportingbet)
Southeast
Washington
Take the $1.40 on the Capitals, they are regular season bullies
Northeast
Boston
Boston ($2.50) but would have liked more value on Buffalo ($2.60)
Atlantic
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh ($2.70) is obvious but I like a roughie the Rangers ($5)
Northwest
Vancouver
Vancouver at $1.20 is a lock but you may want to multi it for value
Pacific
San Jose
Huge battle but the Sharks at $2.10 is still good value
Central
Detroit
Detroit ($2.50) or Chicago ($3) win this so take both
 
Some other suggested bets include the super division winner which is basically the team with the most wins at the end of the regular season. This appears to be a very simple bet to make as they only have seven teams in the market and all teams are $4 or greater. Due to the easy divisions Vancouver and Washington really do seem like the obvious picks and I would have suggested taking Vancouver at around $2, but $4.50 is brilliant. Take $4 on Washington as well and I think you should be quite pleased.
 
Conference winners are the teams to advance to the Stanley Cup finals and I like the San Jose Sharks at $6 and the Pittsburgh Penguins at $7.
 
And finally as mentioned earlier I like the penguins to win the cup and they are paying $11 and I really think this is just brilliant odds. Worth noting the value appears to be more in the Penguins making the final at $7 when comparing the odds to other teams making final and winning the cup.
 
Anyway that’s it for now, enjoy the season and good luck.

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